Attacks on three gas refineries in Asaluyeh raise the prospect of a national gas and energy crisis

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, the 27th of Esfand 1404, March 18, 2026. Ahead of the arrival of Nowruz and the new year, I offer my congratulations to everyone and hope that the coming year will be a year of health, happiness, prosperity and freedom for our country. But in the past 48 hours, because the war is continuing, many events large and small have taken place, of which perhaps the two most important are that the Israelis killed both Khatib, the Minister of Intelligence, and Ali Larijani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

1:01 This success for Israel's intelligence apparatus can in fact be regarded as a major defeat for the Islamic Republic's intelligence apparatus. Basically, from the beginning of this war until now, the intelligence blows the Islamic Republic has suffered may be even greater than the political blows or the military blows it has taken. When they can assassinate the head of the country's intelligence apparatus, and when they can assassinate Ali Larijani, who in practice was, one could say, the second or third person in the country during this period, above all else it must be said that this shows the intelligence superiority

1:57 of the Israelis. There is a lot of speculation about how they got to Ali Larijani. They say they followed him from the day of the Quds Day march, from the air and on the ground, and finally caught him in Pardis, in Rudehen, where he was with his son, and killed him. Or, some people say, people tipped them off. The Israelis themselves say someone informed them. But these days you cannot trust such claims very much, because they are part of the propaganda and psychological warfare of both sides, which is basically common in wars. Unlike Mr. Larijani, Mr. Khatib was not a major figure. Basically, the Minister of Intelligence in the Islamic Republic is something

2:53 like the Minister of Justice in the judiciary, who is regarded merely as the liaison between the judiciary and the government. The Minister of Intelligence is also in practice the liaison between the intelligence apparatus and the cabinet. Khamenei himself had instructed the intelligence apparatus not to give a part of the very important, high-level intelligence to the ministers, because they might be replaced, and only he himself and the Beit [the Leader's office] were informed. In any case, Mr. Khatib, by carrying the title of Minister of Intelligence, was considered the head of the Ministry of Intelligence. But more important than him is Ali Larijani, who was the one sending and receiving messages to and from the White

3:48 House, and he was known as a principlist but a moderate one, with whom the Americans could in practice talk more easily. As for Ali Larijani having been killed by Israel, two theories are now being put forward. Some say it was parts of the IRGC that wanted Larijani killed — the hardline factions of the regime — and whether or not they tipped them off, from that same Ansar al-Mahdi Corps or somewhere else, we don't know. But another theory is that the Israelis deliberately targeted him, because the basis of their work is that this war should continue until they achieve their objectives. But the other important event was the strike on Asaluyeh,

4:46 on the gas refineries, 5 and 6, which are considered three of the most important parts of Asaluyeh. Because, in fact, the various phases of South Pars, which is the largest gas field in the world — and our country's gas is supplied from the phases of South Pars that have come into production — come to Asaluyeh, and refineries have been built there corresponding to the phases, which separate sulfur and other impurities from the gas, in other words, they turn sour gas into sweet gas. Then this gas enters the network both for consumption by industry, the people and so on, and as feedstock for petrochemical plants; part of it is consumed by the petrochemical plants.

5:44 Asaluyeh is one of the most important facilities of the Islamic Republic and of our country, Iran. It is a strategic and key point, because 70 percent of our country's energy consumption now depends on gas. That is, factories and power plants get more than 70 percent of their energy from gas, and likewise a large part of the petrochemical industry depends on gas — on methane, in fact — as feedstock. And when we get to consumption by businesses, such as bakeries, workshops and so on,

6:36 this dependence on gas reaches 90 percent, and household consumption — cooking, heating and other uses — is also more than 90 percent dependent on gas. Therefore, striking Asaluyeh, and not just by hitting a pumping station or a gas pressure station but by hitting the gas refinery itself directly, can in fact be called a strike on one of the most important infrastructures of the country of Iran. This move, which until now neither the Israelis nor the Americans had made,

7:27 opened a new chapter in the war, which, besides freeing the Islamic Republic's hands as well — because it announced that it would retaliate, and today it fired missiles at Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with Qatar in particular suffering more damage — besides this, inside Iran the continuation of this situation can create very great troubles for the people and the country. On the one hand, if power plants don't get gas, they will be forced to shut down and stop, and electricity becomes a problem, which again overshadows everything. And on the other hand, factories, especially energy-intensive factories such as cement, steel and so on, will shut down if gas doesn't reach them, as will many

8:25 other factories, and this chain continues all the way to hospitals, bakeries and medical and health centers. Many things will happen in the country when energy runs into trouble like this. In any case, this new chapter caused oil to rise to $110 a barrel, and one can say the affair has entered another chapter. If this Israeli move of striking Iran's infrastructure continues, we will have a country that is severely weakened and in trouble, and the turmoil can spread to our society and our economy in various dimensions. In Bandar Anzali, too,

9:23 the Israelis struck three ships belonging to the army — the Navy — their pretext reportedly being that there were missile launchers on them. But it is unlikely that such a missile launcher in the Caspian Sea would be a threat to Israel. Most political observers believe that destroying these ships in the Caspian Sea could in fact be paving the way for the Republic of Azerbaijan. This is an issue, a danger, that can threaten our country: if the state of the government, our military structure and our military power have disintegrated, we are neighbors with neighbors each of whom can create great

10:17 troubles. In any case, the question being raised these days is whether the Iranian regime can keep going, as it has said, "I will continue for six months," or whether it will back down; or, on the contrary, whether the Islamic Republic's strategy of closing the Strait of Hormuz and likewise striking oil facilities will work, and it is Mr. Trump who will back down. In any case, the war is still continuing and its fate is unknown. But one can say that keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed — where in fact Iran has a geographic advantage, with 470 kilometers of its southern coast positioned in such a way that it can dominate the Strait of Hormuz — the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not only put pressure on the world's oil, gas and

11:18 energy, but the Arab countries in particular, and Iran itself as well, depend on commercial ships passing through this strait for the import of many goods, from wheat and rice and so on, and that too is currently suspended and stalled. Therefore, the crisis is in fact taking on even larger dimensions. Hoping for the victory of Iran and the Iranian people.