Europe's rejection of Trump's participation in the war

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Monday, 25 Esfand 1404, March 16, 2026. This devastating war, with no prospect for the future in sight, continues. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli and American airstrikes have hit numerous and varied targets with drones, missiles, and bombs. Israel has attacked many targets in various cities, especially Tehran, and the commander of CENTCOM, the US command responsible for Middle East

0:58 affairs, has also said that so far they have struck 6,000 targets. The Islamic Republic's strategy is still to shut the door to negotiations and to continue the war by launching drones and missiles at Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The main element of the Islamic Republic's strategy is also closing the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected oil prices. Some 22 percent of the world's exported oil and 20 percent of the world's exported gas pass through this strait.

2:00 This move has kept oil at around 100 dollars a barrel, fluctuating at times by as much as 20 dollars up or down. It has raised gasoline prices at the pump in, for example, the United States by at least 30 to 40 percent, and has driven prices up in other countries as well. The issue is that the Islamic Republic thinks it can win this war by putting pressure on oil, withstanding the bombing, and targeting the oil facilities of the countries in the region. In fact, one could say that its missile and drone attacks on

2:57 the Arab countries on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf are, according to the figures, eight times its missile attacks on Israel. The Islamic Republic's reading is that if it keeps this up, Trump will eventually be forced to back down, and that Israel is not up for a long war. Whether this assessment is right or wrong, it is in any case coming at the cost of destroying the country's military, industrial, and defense capabilities. There have also been threats to destroy the country's infrastructure. Even up to now, Israel

3:53 has attacked various sectors, such as police stations, law enforcement, and so on. Mr. Trump invited the European countries, in fact seven countries, China among them, since the oil they consume is imported through the Strait of Hormuz, to help Mr. Trump and America keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Today this request was rejected by almost all the European countries; they turned America down flat. Even America's closest ally on the world stage,

4:53 Britain, said that at most, if mines are laid, it will send minesweepers, but beyond that it will not take part in the war. The British prime minister said that the rise in oil prices has already affected the jobs of 100,000 people, and he does not want the crisis to escalate any further. The German defense minister said explicitly that this war is not our war and we will not get involved. Likewise Italy and other countries, as well as the EU's foreign policy chief, all in effect turned Mr. Trump down and said they will not take part in this war. Mr. Trump has threatened Beijing that if it does not help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he will postpone

5:56 his meeting with the Chinese president, which is planned for next month, something that is unlikely to have any effect on China. In any case, as I said before, the Islamic Republic's strategy is clear: by putting pressure on oil and continuing the war, it thinks America will eventually be forced to back down. It says explicitly that it will not accept a ceasefire unless there is a guarantee that there will be no more war, and it rejects every proposal for negotiation, to the point that even when rumors spread that, for example, Mr.

6:51 Witkoff has sent a message and that he and Mr. Araghchi are exchanging messages, Mr. Araghchi has stated explicitly that he will not respond to any message. In effect, the Islamic Republic has shut the door to negotiations. Israel's strategy is also clear: taking advantage of the opportunity that has arisen, it has on its agenda the destruction of the Islamic Republic's military capability, down to the level of factories and so on, as well as the very structure of the Islamic Republic's government, so that it can effectively rid itself of the threat posed by a country that for years has placed the destruction of Israel at the center of its foreign policy. But America's strategy so far is not

7:49 clear, because whoever you talk to in Washington says that Mr. Trump personally makes the decisions. Mr. JD Vance has said he is confident the president will make the right decision and come out of the war victorious. But Mr. Trump has so far spoken and commented in seven or eight different ways. So no one yet knows where he ultimately wants to take this war. But one thing can be said, and that is that Mr. Trump has ordered 5,000 US Marines to be deployed to the region. They have set out from Japan and apparently will be

8:44 on their way for two weeks. Some believe that when these Marines arrive, the seizure of Kharg Island will be on the table, or possibly other places in southern Iran, in fact landing forces on part of Iran's territory. But the problem is that military experts argue that the disruption of ship and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not ultimately be solved this way. In any case, this is a war on which the fate of the people of Iran depends, and for now the people, following Mr. Trump's own advice to stay at home so they won't be harmed, are anxiously following events

9:40 to see where the country will end up. On the eve of Nowruz and the new year, more than 70 percent of businesses and shops are currently closed, and these closures will probably continue until after the Nowruz holidays. This has damaged not only the country's economy; household economies, too, are all under threat and in a state of anxiety. Here's to the victory of Iran and the Iranian people.