Negotiations in Tehran and Moscow, Elections in Israel

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, 6 Aban 1405, October 28, 2026. Various events have taken place over the past week, and to review them we need to go back a little further. In late September, when Mr. Pezeshkian, Mr. Araghchi and their delegation came to New York, they brought a proposal for America that became known as the seven-point plan. It also seemed that in Tehran there was a consensus on these seven points, or rather the seven preconditions that

0:54 Iran had set for negotiations. From hardliners to moderates, from left to right, everyone was, in short, behind it. They gave this to America in New York, and Mr. Araghchi explained parts of it in two or three interviews. What was put forward was that America would first guarantee a ceasefire on all fronts, meaning not only Iran but also Lebanon and so on; lift the naval blockade; allow Iran to sell oil; and, of the blocked funds, release $24 billion, or at least $12

1:45 billion, within six days, as Mr. Araghchi explained. On the seventh day Iran would completely lift its pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and come to the negotiating table. Once this plan reached the Americans, it took perhaps several days for them to respond, and what was heard was that, in short, the Americans' answer was: no, we can't hand over all our levers of pressure, all the cards we hold, to you, and only then have you come and sit at the table; then we would have no cards left. Therefore,

2:35 we'll move forward step by step: as the negotiations progress, with each step forward, some of these measures may be lifted, depending on the deal, what we give and what we get. That American proposal, which came to Iran, was as I have described before. The gist of it was that the Americans had said, in short, this is what it is: either you accept it, or there's no deal. Iran again reviewed it for a few days, and it took perhaps about ten days, during which they said, we're reviewing it, we're working on it, and so on. Finally, last Wednesday, 29 Mehr, news came out

3:27 that Mr. Ghalibaf had gone to see Mojtaba Khamenei, which I reported in these same programs. Apparently, in this meeting Mr. Ghalibaf told Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei that the Americans would not back down any further, and that, in short, this "no war, no peace" situation is not in the country's interest either, especially since after the elections in Israel and America the war may flare up again with even greater intensity. He had asked him to intervene and to agree that they would come and begin these negotiations without these preconditions, with one

4:19 simple condition: that America would, for example, loosen the naval blockade somewhat in certain areas, and Iran would reduce its pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei also consented to this proposal, and a day or two later we saw it announced that Iran had made a proposal to America through Pakistan and Qatar, through the mediators. Again it was heard that the Americans said, very well. From that point there was a scent of negotiations and peace, and as a result diplomatic activity began and picked up speed. Its peak, one might say, was on the one hand

5:12 the day before yesterday, Monday, 4 Aban, when the delegation of the members of the so-called Mecca Pact came to Tehran, consisting of Mr. Asim Munir, the chief of staff of the Pakistani army; Mr. Khalid bin Salman, the brother of Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia's defense minister; and Ibrahim Kalin, the head of Turkey's intelligence organization. In any case, this is a matter in which

6:00 the arrival of these three, especially the Saudi defense minister, who is of course a member of the royal family and will probably be the next crown prince if the king dies and Mr. Mohammed bin Salman becomes king, was considered significant. In the meeting they held, on the other side Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Mohsen Rezaei sat together, perhaps as a sign that there is no disagreement between the country's hardliners and moderates, or perhaps because they don't trust each other and couldn't coordinate what they would say outside. And from here, in fact,

6:52 a serious issue was raised. But before that, on the previous Monday, 27 Mehr, Mr. Lavrov also came to Iran for one day. The Russians matter because they have the greatest influence over the Islamic Republic: in the IRGC, in the army, in Iran's intelligence agencies, in a sense in the Supreme Leader's office, and in many projects such as the nuclear program, and so on and so forth. If the Russians come and say something seriously, the Islamic Republic has to take it very seriously, and sometimes it even

7:45 has no choice but to accept. It is said that Mr. Lavrov's coming to Iran actually followed a phone conversation Mr. Putin had with Mr. Trump, something that was also reflected in the news, that this was a long call between the two presidents. The Russians, in effect, in exchange for American pressure on Ukraine, promised to pressure Iran from their side. The deal is that the Russians, regarding Ukraine's offensive operations and the technologies they have developed themselves,

8:38 long-range drones with suitable speeds, with which Ukraine has been able to strike Russian refineries perhaps 2,000 kilometers away and has worn Russia down. Even under Mr. Biden they would not give Ukraine offensive weapons with a range above 200 or 300 kilometers, and now they have built them themselves. So the Russians want America to apply pressure, and this pressure was also raised in the past day or two. That is, Mr. Elon Musk came out and said that the speed of the Starlink, the 20,000

9:27 Starlink terminals that were given to Ukraine at the very start of the war a few years ago, and probably increased later, had been reduced. The reason is very clear: Mr. Elon Musk said it was because they were being used with offensive weapons, so we reduced the speed. In fact, it seems that the Americans delivered what the Russians wanted, and now it is the Russians' turn to do the same regarding Iran. It is said that what Mr. Lavrov said is that Russia is prepared to mediate so that there is peace and things are settled, and that, regarding the problem in the nuclear negotiations, which is the 400 kilograms

10:17 of uranium, Russia is prepared to step forward, as with the JCPOA, to convert it, change it, even take it out of Iran and, after diluting it to 5 percent, bring it back: turn the 60 percent uranium into 5 percent and return it to Iran. In any case, what I am saying is what has been published in the press and by news agencies, but naturally it cannot be stated with certainty. In any case, Mr. Pezeshkian, the day before yesterday, this Monday, immediately after meeting the heads of this so-called Mecca Pact, left for Moscow for the summit of gas-exporting countries, on the sidelines of which

11:12 he had a separate meeting with Mr. Putin, and likewise with Sheikh Tamim, the emir of Qatar. It is said that today Qatar has put forward a seven-day plan, with Putin also emphasizing peace and saying that the Islamabad agreement can be a good basis for negotiations. In any case, we see that diplomatic activity is also being pursued from the Russian side. In any case, all these matters bring us to today. News was of course published that yesterday Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who is in fact associated with the warmongering, hardline faction, had a meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei.

12:05 Again, what the details were or weren't, we don't know, but the sentence quoted from Mojtaba Khamenei is that it was recommended to proceed through fulfilling the conditions set out by the country's officials, with the goal of ending the war and this so-called "no war, no peace" situation. This "no war, no peace," which Mr. Pezeshkian has also bitterly complained about once or twice so far, saying that in these conditions everything is paralyzed and nothing can be done, led to the statement attributed to Mr. Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, appearing in the headlines of a number of newspapers that are, in fact,

12:55 not hardline: that the "no war, no peace" situation must be brought to an end. And to be fair, this situation is deadly for a country and its economy, and one way or another the country must get out of this limbo, especially since the shadow of a devastating war, which would also target the country's infrastructure, hangs over the country. In any case, when we put all these events side by side, it seems that if nothing special happens, like those three missiles that everyone still says "we don't know who fired them," which hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz and in effect blew the 14-point Islamabad agreement sky-high, and which may well have been fired by people who were in some way

13:50 agents of Israel, it seems that we have been placed on the path toward peace. Now, in these circumstances, Israel's election was held yesterday, and as of 7:40 tonight Israel time, citing the Israeli newspaper the Jerusalem Post, it can be said that the results are as follows: Mr. Netanyahu's coalition bloc has won 53 of the 120 seats in Israel's parliament, the Knesset. The opposition bloc, whose slogan was a change of government, led by Mr. Eisenkot, Gadi Eisenkot, has won 48 seats.

14:40 The Joint Arab List, which is also a bloc, won 12 seats, and the Ra'am party, which is also Arab and speaks somewhat more about sectoral issues, won seven seats. As a result, the Arabs inside Israel, who are Israeli citizens, have won 19 seats. Of course, as of tonight 85 percent of the votes have been counted, so the final result may differ slightly from this. So now, from tomorrow, the ball is in the court of Mr. Herzog, the president of Israel, who has emphasized that we must work in such a way that

15:29 they are not forced to hold the election again. Mr. Herzog must, within one week, talk with these existing coalitions to see which of them has the best chance of forming a government, and task whichever one he chooses with forming the government, which normally will be either Mr. Netanyahu or Mr. Eisenkot. That first nominee has 28 days to form the government, extendable by 14 days, meaning 42 days in total. If he cannot, Mr. Herzog must turn to a second nominee, who then has 28 days without extension. And if none of this works out, then the election

16:20 will be held again. Until a new government is formed, or things go to a new election, Mr. Netanyahu's government will remain in charge as a caretaker government. Therefore, the coming week and then the 28 days after that are the period in which we must watch where Israel's policy will go. Because if Mr. Netanyahu stays in power, current policies will continue. But if another government is formed, at least Mr. Eisenkot, although he will not be softer toward Iran, differs from Mr. Netanyahu on a number of positions, which

17:10 we can go into in more detail later. Hoping for the victory of Iran and…