Elections in Israel and America and their impact on the war with Iran

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. Wednesday, 22 Mehr 1405, October 14, 2026. Over the past few days, the intensifying war between the Houthis, that is, the Ansarullah government in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia has taken on new dimensions and quickly rose to the top of the world news. Saudi Arabia has intensified its airstrikes in support of the PLC government, the Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia, which is currently carrying out operations

0:53 to retake the positions it lost at Bab el-Mandeb, around Taiz and elsewhere. In return, the Houthis have also intensified their missile and drone attacks. On October 8 they attacked Riyadh airport, but the attack of October 10 in particular, that is, four days ago, on Riyadh airport was very bloody. It left at least 13 dead and 300 wounded. The day after that, that is, October 9, they carried out yet another attack on Riyadh airport, which left one dead and 11 wounded,

1:43 and Riyadh airport was closed. Many flights were halted, and many airlines announced that they are suspending their flights to Riyadh for now. Another development was that yesterday, October 13, the Houthis attacked Aramco's administrative building in Dhahran in eastern Saudi Arabia and damaged it, and in response, also yesterday, Saudi Arabia attacked oil facilities and oil depots in Sanaa, which is under Houthi control. Today,

2:33 the 14th, the missile launches and attacks have continued, and the consequences of this escalation can be examined from several angles. On one side, the Saudis are preparing for a large conference. For a long time it has been planned that major energy and oil companies would gather in Saudi Arabia, and with these operations that has been called into question. Some senior executives of these companies will probably not attend, or will prefer to take part online. On the other side, the issue

3:25 of oil supply—and Saudi Arabia is perhaps the most important oil exporter in the world—has run into problems. Apart from the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels of oil from Dhahran and the oil regions of eastern Saudi Arabia to the west and the Red Sea coast, and which Saudi Arabia has repaired and is now carrying 5 to 7 million barrels these days, the bigger problem is that ships loading Saudi oil at Saudi Arabia's port of Yanbu and wanting to move through Bab el-Mandeb toward

4:15 the Far East—China, Japan, Korea and other countries—face Houthi attacks. In addition, in the Red Sea in general and at the port of Yanbu itself, the problems caused by the Houthi attacks have led the Saudis, for example, to tell two European customers that their oil deliveries for October have been postponed for now. Today on the oil market, North Sea Brent crude reached $16. So it can be seen that Ansarullah of Yemen—whom the world's news agencies usually describe

5:05 as "the Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen," although they themselves don't like being described that way and firmly believe they are independent and not Tehran's puppets—and Saudi Arabia have taken the clashes to a level that can give new dimensions to the war in the Persian Gulf. Mr. Araghchi, the Islamic Republic's foreign minister, also announced two days ago that Iran is ready to mediate between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia—a mediation which, of course, can mean a great deal. Or the Israelis came and proposed to the Saudis

5:54 that they would enter the war against the Houthis to help Saudi Arabia, which naturally Saudi Arabia did not accept, because a war against another group—who, although they are enemies, are after all from an Islamic country—waged by Israel at Saudi Arabia's invitation is not something the Saudis would want to accept. So the issues of this escalating war are something that also affects the war with Iran. But another development we need to pay attention to is

6:44 the October 27 election in Israel and the parliamentary, or congressional, elections in America on November 3, both of which can again be connected to Iran's fate and the question of war. In Israel, the election is party-based: people vote for parties or for the coalitions they form, and for a coalition or party to win, it must hold 61 of the 120 seats of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, to have a majority and form a government. And every party and coalition

7:34 must win at least 3.25 percent of the vote to be able to enter the Knesset. In this election, the polls—which of course differ, since all sorts of polling institutes conduct them—but the latest poll, which Israel's Channel 12 television conducted yesterday, shows that the party of Mr. Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israeli army, would win 23 seats, Mr. Netanyahu's Likud party would win 20 seats, a joint list formed by Mr. Lapid

8:23 and Mr. Bennett, two former prime ministers, would win 13 seats, and in sum the parties opposed to Mr. Netanyahu would win 54 seats, while four Arab parties would together win 13 seats, so they would also have to join this coalition to reach 61 seats. If Mr. Eisenkot wins and gets this same proportion, he would be tasked with forming the cabinet, and then he could naturally form a coalition with Mr. Lapid and Mr. Bennett, and could also bring at least some of the Arab parties' seats into the coalition, and in this way form a government.

9:15 Of course, some other polls in Israel show this proportion as smaller, and show the two sides, now headed by Mr. Eisenkot and Mr. Netanyahu, as roughly equal. The criticisms of Mr. Netanyahu from his opponents are mainly about October 7, that he was negligent and failed to see it coming, and partly about the war with Iran, that he has not been able to reach a decisive result, and there is dissatisfaction with him over it. To the point that Mr. Netanyahu announced that until the Israeli election we will not go to war with Iran—although the hardline factions in Iran say this is trickery, that they want to

10:08 fool us, that they have said such things before and then attacked. In any case, it can be seen that in the middle of the Israeli election, which has now reached its peak and is heated, the debates and discussions about war with Iran, and issues related especially to Gaza and Hamas, occupy the central place. But in America, where all members of the House of Representatives are elected every two years and one third of the senators are also elected, the polls show that in the House of Representatives

10:59 the chance that the majority, which is now held by the Republicans, will pass to the Democrats is between 82 and 91 percent, meaning the chance is very high, depending on the different polls. And in the Senate, where the seats being put to a vote—since Senate membership is for six years and one third of the senators are elected every two years—the race is much closer, and the Democrats' chance of winning a majority there too is at most 55 percent, for example; some have even said up to 64, but it is difficult. The problem is that Mr. Trump, the president,

11:49 is a Republican, and usually, if he were popular, his backing of candidates would bring in votes. But Mr. Trump's problems in America are, first, the issue of high prices and the cost of living, which is a big topic these days; second, the war with Iran, for which he is sharply criticized, especially since Americans now—Democrats, Republicans and independents alike—basically do not look favorably on this war and do not like America getting involved in war, and they say so openly. Another problem for Mr. Trump is the policies with which

12:39 he plays with tariffs, his economic policies, and the things he does every day, butting heads and clashing with the press, the judiciary and so on, in effect moving against democracy and the structure of America. Of course, Mr. Trump has also said that until the American election, that is, November 3, he will not get involved in a war with Iran. Although again Iran's hardliners say on their websites and networks that this too is a trick, because they said this before and then attacked us. This is something that really makes prediction difficult, but what can definitely be said is that the outcome of these two elections in these two countries

13:31 is tied to the outcome of the war with Iran and to the situation Iran is now caught up in in general. And if, for example, Mr. Netanyahu loses in Israel and Mr. Trump loses the majority in both houses, or at least one house, then decision-making, continuing the war and so on will become more difficult than it is now. However, the interval between November 3 in America and January, when the newly elected representatives take office and the composition of Congress changes, is a dangerous period: if Mr. Trump is going to resume the war, he would have to do it in this period,

14:24 because in any case the previous Congress is still sitting as the US Congress. Hoping for the victory of Iran and Iranians.