War or peace, which one has become more likely?

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Monday, 30 Shahrivar 1405, September 21, 2026. Developments over the past few days have raised the likelihood of war, and at the same time the likelihood of peace. On the war side, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is responsible for running the war, issued a threatening statement. It referred to a meeting held in Germany at the invitation of the CENTCOM commander and attended by the army chiefs of staff and senior military commanders of the six Persian Gulf countries, plus Israel, Egypt and

0:57 Jordan. The statement said, as we have also seen in the news, that meetings of this kind point to the possibility of war. Its threat was that if war breaks out, Iran has new weapons, and the war will no longer stay within the Persian Gulf and the Middle East but will extend beyond them. It is said that Iran has tested missiles whose range reaches the Indian Ocean and that can target American ships or their bases.

1:46 Another important item pointing toward a greater risk of war is that on 28 Shahrivar, that is, the day before yesterday, the US State Department issued a statement asking American citizens in Iran to leave the country immediately. In diplomatic convention, this is a Level 4 warning, the highest level, and it can signal an imminent risk of war. We have many Iranian Americans: more than 2 million Iranians live in America, and many of them have become US citizens

2:44 and hold American nationality, and many of them may be in Iran even as we speak. The State Department also issued another statement, effectively a Level 3 warning to American citizens across the entire Middle East. In this statement, which several US embassies in the region published jointly, American citizens were told that if they are in the region, they should bear in mind that airports may close and flights may be disrupted, so they should leave the region, and if they have not yet traveled, they should reconsider their trips to Middle Eastern countries. So these statements, particularly those of the State Department,

3:44 differ from Mr. Trump's off-the-cuff remarks and can be regarded as serious and genuine. On the peace side, however, Mr. Ghalibaf said in the Majlis yesterday that the choice is not war or negotiation; we must pursue both war and negotiation. In his words, we must carry forward both war, with strength and reason, and negotiation, with authority and rationality. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has also stressed that we have given seven conditions, through

4:43 Qatar, to America, and we are waiting for Washington's answer. If the answer is positive, then we will negotiate. Officially, though, no more than three conditions have been stated so far. The first is that the war must end on all fronts, which was also in that 14-point agreement, including in Lebanon. The second is the release of Iran's frozen assets, with talk of $24 billion. The third is an end to the naval blockade. The Americans, for their part, have said that the Islamabad agreement is moot because its 60 days have passed. So if there are to be talks, the nuclear issue must also be on the agenda,

5:44 and the original dispute, which is where it all started, must be discussed alongside the issues of the Strait of Hormuz, the war, the naval blockade and so on. As for America's response to these preconditions raised by Mohsen Rezaei, there has been no announcement so far that the seven conditions have been accepted, though we have not heard an official rejection from the American side either. What seems to be the American position, however, is that they do not accept preconditions for negotiations. That appears to be the sticking point. The Iranian side says: we have no assurance that America won't attack again in the middle of negotiations.

6:43 So, they say, we will open the Strait of Hormuz once America has accepted these seven conditions, and then we will go to the table and talk about the nuclear issue and other matters as well. America says: we accept no preconditions. Come to the negotiating table; I will keep up the economic pressure and the blockade, and at the table we will discuss the conditions together. Of course, Mr. Trump, who gives several interviews a day, has also said that the door to negotiations with Iran is open and that he is even willing to meet Mr. Pezeshkian at the United Nations, but the economic pressure continues. His Treasury Secretary, Mr. Michael Bessent,

7:44 announced today that the deadline given to the world's airports expires on 1 Mehr, that is, the day after tomorrow, Wednesday. Since America has sanctioned all 27 Iranian airlines, no airport should provide services to Iranian aircraft or Iranian airline companies, including fuel, technical services, and landing and takeoff fees, because all of these involve payments and receipts at airports. If an airport does this, America will cut off its access to the dollar, and they may take even tougher steps, such as barring American flights, for example,

8:43 from these airports. So many airports will probably comply. Meanwhile, Mr. Araghchi arrived in New York today, and Mr. Pezeshkian leaves tomorrow; he is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, 1 Mehr. In my opinion, the chance of Mr. Trump meeting Mr. Pezeshkian is very small. On the Iranian side, none of the presidents has so far met an American president on the sidelines of the General Assembly. Mr. Trump, it is said, wants to talk with the leaders of the Arab countries, and he has even

9:39 proposed a fund, into which America would put $10 billion, for energy and oil infrastructure that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The oil market's reaction has been optimistic: North Sea oil fell from $108 to $104 and today reached $100 a barrel. In any case, as for whether in the coming days we will move toward war or peace, or remain in this state of limbo, one might say that at least until after this week, while the UN General Assembly is in session, nothing may happen. There is also a third party to this war, and that is Israel, which

10:40 we need to address separately, because Israel's elections have also reached critical points that could herald either war or peace. Meanwhile, the Statistical Center of Iran has published a report on this spring, the first quarter of this year, showing that Iran's economic growth was minus 1.1 percent. In other words, negative growth shows the economy shrank by 1.1 percent. If we exclude oil and look at the other sectors of the economy, it was as low as minus 4.6 percent. Industry

11:34 taken alone was minus 2.5 percent, but industry and mining together, which includes oil, were minus 14.7 percent, mainly because of oil and oil-dependent industries. The services sector, which covers all kinds of businesses, wholesale, retail, transport and so on, as well as construction and the like, was minus 4.8 percent, and the transport sector was minus 17 percent. So we have this shrinking of the economy and severe recession, and on the other hand an increase in liquidity and in the velocity of money, which we discussed before in

12:30 the well-known formula M times V equals P times Y. In effect, Y, output, has fallen, and that is only through spring. In summer the situation was probably even worse, if the figures come out at the end of summer. Liquidity has grown, and at the same time the velocity of circulation has risen, because people are not holding on to the rial. So it is natural that P, the general price level, rises for everyone. Only the agricultural sector, according to the Statistical Center's figures, was plus 2.3 percent in spring and actually grew slightly, which was probably due to good rainfall or a good harvest.

13:27 And yesterday Mr. Trump announced that three media outlets, Politico, MS NOW and CNN, are no longer allowed into the White House or to cover White House news. Today all three filed suit in court against the White House, relying on the First Amendment to the US Constitution, which guarantees freedom of speech and bars the government from restricting it. But what is even more important is that four major American news outlets, CBS, ABC and NBC, plus Fox News, came out in support of CNN. Fox is the most significant, because it supports

14:23 Mr. Trump. All five outlets jointly boycotted covering Mr. Trump and the White House. Here's to the victory of Iran and the Iranian people.