The Houthis' control over the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and its political implications

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. Today is Friday, 20 Shahrivar 1405, September 11, 2026. The most important event of the past two days was the lightning victory of Ansarallah, that is, the Houthi government of Yemen. In this war, which lasted perhaps less than a week, the Houthis managed to seize Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline down to its lowest point, where Yemeni territory turns, namely the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In this war the Houthis not only took the port of Mocha, which is an important port on the

1:01 Red Sea, but also took the town of Dhubab at the lowest point of the coastline, down to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. More important than all of this, they seized the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, and they also seized the very important island of Perim, or Mayyun. This last island sits right inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It effectively divides the strait into two parts and fully commands traffic through it. In central Yemen, Marib Province, which lies next to the

1:58 oil and gas provinces and has the city of Marib as its capital, is still held by the government of the Presidential Leadership Council, the Saudi-backed government. But the fighting has intensified there too. The Houthis, who already held the northern areas and provinces and have now taken all the coastal areas, are pushing to take central Yemen as well from the Presidential Leadership Council government headed by Mr. Rashad al-Alimi, who is the president of this council, known as the PLC. This is the government that is now under the Houthi hammer

2:53 in the north and the center. Below it is the Southern Transitional Council, which for a long time held Aden and was backed by the Emiratis. The dispute that broke out between Saudi Arabia and the UAE some time ago, when Saudi Arabia strongly backed this PLC and the Southern Transitional Council was sidelined, is now showing its consequences. Yemen is a thoroughly tribal society with many tribes, especially in this western region of Yemen on the Red Sea coast. When the Houthis attacked and the fighting began, while the Saudi-backed

3:51 government was supposedly strengthening these tribes there to fight the Houthis, they turned sharply against the PLC government. They say it dragged them into a war without giving them the support they needed, and in some places they actually joined the Houthis even before the fighting. In central Yemen the same thing is happening. Although Saudi Arabia gives the tribal chiefs money and resources to stand behind the PLC government, with the pressure the Houthis are applying and the discontent the tribes feel, there is a strong chance they will turn their backs on Mr. Rashad al-Alimi's government. Many believe these lightning victories are part of what has really been

4:51 a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen. On one side is the PLC government, currently based in Aden in southern Yemen. On the other side is the Houthi government, which controls the capital, Sanaa, and has now taken control of the entire western coast as well. They are fighting each other there on behalf of Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Houthi government insists, "I am independent and I make my own decisions," and Iran also says it has no involvement and that they are independent and make their own decisions. But the reality is that it was the Islamic Republic that,

5:45 years ago, helped the Houthis of Yemen, who were in the mountainous northern provinces, come and take Sanaa. At one point Mr. Ali Larijani said, "We taught the Houthis how to build missiles, drones, equipment and so on, and now they are doing it themselves." He was right. Many of the weapons they have are now produced in Yemen, though with help from the IRGC and Iran's defense industries, and with the training Iran has given their soldiers and fighters through Lebanon's Hezbollah. On the other side it is Saudi Arabia, and also, especially for some time now, Pakistan, that have tried to train the PLC government's military units.

6:44 Saudi Arabia also gives them heavy air support through airstrikes. But this war suddenly showed that the PLC army, its military forces and its allied tribes never had the fighting capacity the Houthis have. In any case, this new development coincided with an explosion along roughly seven or eight kilometers of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries more than 7 million barrels of oil from the oil fields of eastern Saudi Arabia to western Saudi Arabia, to the Red Sea coast, for

7:44 export from the port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia. About one and a half million barrels go to refineries and domestic consumption inside Saudi Arabia in the west, but the rest is loaded there and shipped to distant destinations. This pipeline has caught fire, and now, with the Houthis controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, these Saudi exports of five or six million barrels of oil from that location have also run into trouble. In fact, after taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, I mean the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Houthis announced that this international waterway is open and everyone can

8:37 pass freely, except Israel, which they had already said long ago they would not allow its ships through. As for Saudi Arabia, which had imposed a naval blockade on the Houthis, they said that Saudi Arabia is now under blockade too and they will not allow passage to Saudi ships or Saudi goods and cargo. Taken together, this pushed North Sea oil, the benchmark, up to $110 a barrel today. A surge that had started from eighty-something dollars went to 90, above 90, to 100 and beyond, a big jump. As a result, for example, diesel in America

9:33 reached an average of $6 a gallon, or one and a half dollars a liter, the highest in recent years. Diesel that was around $3 a gallon has in effect doubled, so it hits transport rates hard, from trucks to locomotives and so on. In effect, Iran has not let the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen, and now control of the Bab el-Mandeb by a force very close to Iran has, one can say, changed the equation of war and peace. Regarding this military operation, too, Iran has said that

10:28 it had no involvement whatsoever, and the Houthis also say Iran was not involved. But Western sources, and I think they are right, Western news agencies report that not only were Hezbollah advisers and fighters on the ground and in the fighting, but more than 100 IRGC commanders were also alongside the Houthis at command levels and played a role in planning and carrying out this operation. Just like what the Islamic Republic did in the liberation of Aleppo alongside the Assad government, when by taking Aleppo it effectively turned the Syrian civil war in the Assad government's favor, and years later the Assad government fell at the hands of

11:24 the forces of Mr. Ahmed al-Sharaa, with Turkey's backing. In these circumstances, it was announced that on Monday in Oman, and it is not yet clear whether it will be in Salalah or in Muscat, the capital of Oman, there will be an important meeting at the level of foreign ministers, attended by Iran, Iraq and the six countries on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf. It is said that at this meeting Iran and Oman want to present the plan they have agreed on to these six other countries, Iraq and five other Persian Gulf countries, and bring them on board. This agreement between Iran and Oman includes, in its preliminary outlines, the establishment of a

12:20 temporary safe corridor for shipping, clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines, and permanent arrangements for the management and security of the Strait of Hormuz. America strongly opposes this agreement, has said it will wreck it, and does not accept it. America has the ability to do that if it wants to. But the issue is that if these countries, Iraq, and especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, agree to this plan, now that the door to the Bab el-Mandeb has also been opened to the Islamic Republic, then America will come under heavy pressure, politically at the very least, and in terms of military

13:21 force it will come under great pressure, especially since it has been unable, or has appeared unable, to ensure the security of these countries. In any case, the coming week is an important week politically. Let us also remember that October 27 is Israel's election, and Mr. Netanyahu stands neck and neck with his close rival, Mr. Gadi Eisenkot. America, too, has its midterm congressional elections on November 3. These two countries are the other two sides of the three-way war between Iran, Israel and America. And Mr. Trump has now promised, "I will give every American $5,000 if the Republicans win," which, in effect,

14:17 as the American press puts it, is an election bribe he wants to hand out. He announced this at a Republican gathering in Dallas, Texas. These two elections will also affect the political fate of this inconclusive and devastating war, a subject we will take up in the coming days and in future sessions. Meanwhile, news is coming from the Bazargan border that there has been a slowdown at this crossing. Turkey may close the border, and word is coming from Turkish airports that for now they have said they will not carry shipments bound for Iran. But

15:10 there has been no definitive announcement yet of closing airports to flights by the 27 Iranian airlines that America has sanctioned, although travel agencies in Iran are saying that within a few days, in fact within some days from now, the flights of all Iran's airlines will also be cut off under the pressure of American sanctions. But at least until Monday we have to wait and see. Ali Zarei has sent out a voice message from Ghezel Hesar prison saying that his execution sentence has been confirmed, and he has asked the people for help. He is a young man who suffered an eye injury in 1401 [2022]. Once, in 1402 [2023], he was released on a bail of 5

16:10 billion tomans to get treatment for his eye. He even went to Germany and came back, was arrested again, and is now on the verge of execution. Hoping for the victory of Iran and…