The IRGC Intelligence Organization and the fear of public protests

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Friday, 6 Shahrivar 1405, August 28, 2026. Yesterday afternoon the IRGC Intelligence Organization issued a statement warning about the possibility of a new round of protests taking shape. The issues it listed were mostly people's livelihood problems and their hardships. It then threatened, in short, that these protests are, as they announced in advance, the work of a foreign conspiracy, Israel, America and so on. These are the usual things they say, without considering that it is the chaotic state of Iran's economy that has driven people to their

0:57 wits' end, and the situation gets worse every day. In my previous program, I mentioned that there are rumors in Washington that the Israelis are seeking, before the Israeli elections, to get street protests going through calls by certain individuals. Then, when the regime cracks down and kills, they would use this as a platform to exploit inside Israel. If elections were held in Israel today, according to the polls, Mr. Netanyahu would come in third, although Israeli experts say that until the very last

1:53 moment it cannot be predicted and one has to wait until the elections themselves, because the races are very close. In any case, the IRGC Intelligence Organization, as usual, instead of fighting the cause, which is the country's turmoil and the people's discontent, has gone after the effect. Repression and threats are the main tools it has. Right here I must also say that it is up to the vigilance of our activists on the ground: if any protest is going to be organized, taking the form of

2:46 street protests, and violent ones at that, is in effect playing on a field where the regime is ready. It has the equipment, it has the manpower, it has killers, and it is already making preparations in advance. Reason dictates that where the enemy is ready and equipped, one should not move, but should instead enter other fields and use other methods. As for what protest methods there are, what campaigns can be put on the agenda, and why, among the protest methods, street protest, especially in the form of mass gatherings and marches, is wrong, there are dozens of

3:43 other methods. Fundamentally, turning to methods of the paralysis type, non-cooperation, sanctioning and boycotting the regime's pillars of power, are methods that put no one in danger, and the regime has no way to counter them. We will talk more about this in the coming days, about how field organizers in activities inside Iran can use, and have used, methods against which these threats from the IRGC Intelligence Organization cannot work. Anyway, as I said, the regime, as usual, has reached for the club of repression and is fighting the effect, whereas just yesterday, as it happens,

4:44 the Statistical Center of Iran also published the inflation figure for the month of Amordad compared to the same month last year, which shows 89 percent. For food and beverages this figure came out at 127.5, close to 130, and that is even though subsidized goods are included in the basket of goods we are comparing. Or in transportation, 115, even though gasoline, fuel, spare parts and so on for commercial vehicles, trucks, buses and the like are still subsidized. Or hotels and restaurants, 117.

5:38 If we put this next to the negative growth rate of the economy, for which the International Monetary Fund has projections such as 5.7 percent, it clearly shows stagflation in the country. Then the fundamental ailment of the economy becomes visible: the country's liquidity, which at the beginning of this year, in Farvardin, was estimated at 15.5 thousand trillion tomans, has now passed the 18 thousand trillion toman mark, and those figures are already a month and some old. It is predicted that by the end of the year it will pass the 25 to 30 thousand

6:35 trillion toman mark. And the dollar, which is in fact one of the indicators in which you can see this inflation, the fall of the rial in its exchange rate against foreign currencies, including the dollar, is moving in the 200 to 245 thousand toman channel, and it could rise suddenly with a steep slope, not as a linear curve but as an exponential function. Economists such as Dr. Nili use an indicator for hyperinflation: they say that if inflation is above 50 percent for three consecutive years, the country enters the stage of hyperinflation.

7:34 The hyperinflation stage is the stage in which precisely this steep slope I mentioned, in the fall of the currency's value and the rise in prices, begins and shows itself. Mr. Pezeshkian has also spoken, saying that the third gasoline rate will go from 5,000 to 10,000 tomans. Of course, he did not say whether the current quotas at 1,500 tomans and 3,000 tomans will be reduced or changed or not. He also did not say when the third rate of 10,000 tomans will be announced. But the government is in fact under pressure and does not have the capacity to continue this energy subsidy. He also gave some figures, saying that imports and exports have decreased by 25 to

8:37 35 percent, and that while during the period of the June memorandum of understanding we managed to sell 90 million barrels of oil, we no longer have such a possibility now. Interestingly, Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement. It is not clear whether this statement was written and published immediately after Pezeshkian's remarks, or whether it was from before, or whatever. But in this statement, while he said on the occasion of Government Week that the government must be supported, and that we should have national cohesion and avoid creating polarization and so on, he also issued a warning, as it were, that the candid

9:33 statement of weaknesses by senior government officials is a great help to the enemy. Besides Mr. Pezeshkian, Mr. Hemmati had also described the situation, that we cannot sell even one barrel of oil, and Mr. Ghalibaf had also spoken of hunger and said that we will not last if people are hungry. Moreover, Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei, in the rest of his statement, stated that the problems of inflation and unemployment are dark spots on the page of the country's economy, which must gradually become smaller and smaller until they are eventually wiped out completely. The kind of things his father used to say,

10:25 flowery compositions that are worthless, good for nothing, and which scream that this nonsense comes from someone who does not understand even the simplest economic issues and does not consult with a proper economist either. In any case, these words and flowery compositions are no cure for the country's economic ailments. As for Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei, whether he is now alive, conscious, has his arms and legs, whatever, in any case, those who write this statement with his signature at the bottom bear the main responsibility for running the country, and you can no longer solve the country's problems with these essay-like words. Mr. Pezeshkian, in the same remarks, also

11:27 gave a kind of answer to America, which amounts to a rejection of accepting the recent memorandum of understanding the Americans proposed, under which Iran and Oman, through an agreement they have, would open the strait, Iran would not attack anywhere else, its proxy forces would not attack the countries of the region either, and America would lift the naval blockade and lift some of the sanctions. In these same remarks, Mr. Pezeshkian in fact raised the maximalist conditions again, namely that in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, the Americans must lift the sanctions, release Iran's money, and end the naval blockade. He himself did not even mention it, but others are also talking about compensation

12:27 and so on, and in my opinion these things once again make the work of mediators such as Qatar or Pakistan, who have traveled to Iran these days, more difficult. Meanwhile, Mr. John Ratcliffe, the director of the American intelligence agency, the CIA, suddenly went to Moscow on a military plane and came back after eight and a half hours. He met with senior officials, though not Mr. Putin, and the content of that has become the subject of much speculation. The last time a CIA director went so suddenly was Mr. William Burns, who in the Biden era, in 2021, went with a message from Mr. Biden to in fact warn Russia

13:25 not to attack Ukraine. For this reason, it is said that the purpose of Mr. Ratcliffe's trip was also to warn Russia not to attack one of the Baltic republics, said to be Latvia, or regarding the matter that happened in Leipzig and in Poland, that he was, for example, warning them not to do it. In any case, it is said that one possibility is that Russia might attack one of the NATO member countries. Another speculation is that he talked about Iran, and that Iran benefits from Russian intelligence support, and asked Russia to stop doing this and to intervene in the process of the talks. In any case, today Mr. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, stated that we do not agree with collecting

14:27 tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, and this is something we must watch in the coming days, to see whether Russia and America have reached an agreement on this, and if so, its effects can be seen in the statements of officials on both sides. Meanwhile, Mr. Abbas Salehi, the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance in Mr. Pezeshkian's government, has stated that he has prepared a list of 100 people, which he has given to the government, so that approval can be given for these 100 Iranians abroad to return. Besides cultural and artistic figures, he also mentioned the names of some political and cultural activists. And the sudden trip of Mr. Namjoo, the singer,

15:25 to Iran has also become controversial, as to whether it is connected to Mr. Salehi's remarks or not. In any case, others have also stepped in, giving opinions and lists and so on. In any case, this story is not a new one. It was raised in Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani's era too. Assurances were given. It was the same in Mr. Khatami's era. The problem, however, was that some of those who had gone abroad believed these words, and because of a lack of coordination in Iran, some of them were arrested and were in prison for several years. In any case, in such matters, no one can really trust what is said, especially by the government in Iran.

16:20 Hoping for the victory of Iran and Iranians.