Fragile Ceasefire Violated by Both Sides; Risk of All-Out War?

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, 17 Tir 1405, July 8, 2026. Over the past 48 hours, the shaky ceasefire between Iran and America has come close to collapsing completely. First, Iran, citing Clause 5 of the May 14 memorandum of understanding between Iran and America, said that ships cannot pass through the corridor that was set up in Omani waters with American support to transit the Strait, and that they must get permission from Iran. "Management

0:56 of the Strait of Hormuz is ours." For that reason, they attacked three oil tankers with drones, and one of them caught fire extensively. This led America last night to strike numerous sites in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Sirik, and Iran retaliated by attacking Bahrain and Kuwait: the American naval base in Bahrain and the American air base in Kuwait. After that, tonight, Iran time, America carried out extensive strikes on more than 80 sites around Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Sirik, Qeshm, Kharg, Abu Musa, Jask, Chabahar, and even

1:59 Iranshahr airport. So far, eight members of the Iranian Army and one member of the IRGC have reportedly been killed in these strikes. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department officially announced that the sanctions it had temporarily suspended for 60 days on Iranian oil exports have been reinstated and those licenses revoked. So anyone who buys Iranian oil again will be subject to U.S. sanctions. For oil that has already been shipped, I think they have been given until the end of this month to complete payment, and from then

2:52 on, the sanctions are back. The transfer of Iran's money is also halted for now. Under that arrangement, $3 billion was supposed to come to Iran, then another $3 billion later, then $6 billion, for a total of $12 billion of Iran's funds to be released. In response, the Islamic Republic announced that it has halted the expert-level negotiations with America. Today, Mr. Trump, who has gone to Turkey for the NATO summit, said at a press conference, very angrily, that as far as he is concerned this memorandum is finished.

3:48 It's over. He did say that Mr. Witkoff and Kushner, who are in charge of the negotiations, can carry on with their work, but that he himself is done with it. It seems unlikely that Mr. Trump would stay out of this and, say, sit in a corner and let Witkoff and Kushner do whatever they want. But in any case, that is what he said. Then he said, very angrily, that they had threatened to kill him, Trump, and he added that Iran's current leaders might be killed as well. His vice president, Mr. JD Vance, also spoke in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and said that if they strike ships

4:45 in the Strait of Hormuz, we will retaliate. He said the deal was simple: we were to lift the naval blockade on condition that the Strait stays open, and now that Iran is threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, we will attack it. It seems the two sides disagree over the interpretation of this clause of the memorandum. The Islamic Republic believes the clause means that the security of ships in the Strait of Hormuz must be ensured with Iran's approval. America's interpretation, on the other hand, is that the clause says Iran has nothing more to do with the Strait and will not block any ship, until this is settled later in the negotiations.

5:42 The root of it apparently is that the Islamic Republic still hopes to profit from the Strait of Hormuz and collect tolls on ships passing through it, under the label of traffic management, the environment, or whatever else. Of course, nobody has accepted that so far, not even Oman. In any case, after the tension of the past 48 hours, whose outcome is still unclear, the dollar reached 180,000 tomans in Iran, and the world oil market reacted as well: North Sea Brent rose 5 percent to $78 a barrel, and

6:41 stock markets once again saw declines and stagnation. Once again, a big question mark hangs over the world economy, because the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of tankers, especially gas carriers, are vitally important to the world. Mr. Araghchi spoke by phone with the Prime Minister of Qatar and stressed, supposedly, that there should be peace and negotiation. Pakistan, too, as one of the two mediating countries, called for calm and said the matter can be resolved through negotiation. Meanwhile, the Russians, RIA Novosti in fact,

7:42 reported that Iran does not accept the so-called arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in this form and that it has halted the negotiations. What will happen? Will this tension escalate? Will we again see heavy exchanges of fire from both sides, with Iran attacking countries in the region, and America, possibly joined by Israel, again striking Iranian facilities, especially Iran's infrastructure, which Mr. Trump has once again threatened? Whether it reaches that level of tension really remains unclear right now, although

8:40 perhaps Iran and America have no choice but to negotiate. Even though the hardliners in Iran, America and even Israel are beating the drums of war, in the end it seems there is no alternative to negotiation. Especially in Iran, where the likes of Kayhan newspaper put out slogans that are truly laughable, such as that any peace agreement must include Trump's extradition so he can be punished for his deed, which is the killing of Khamenei. Or those who were in charge of organizing Khamenei's funeral procession and these ceremonies: the Tehran IRGC, which was responsible in Tehran, and mostly various branches

9:35 of the IRGC did this, and the Quds Force, which today in Iraq has been carrying the body around and bringing it back and so on. It seems they themselves have come to believe that these people who turned out, however many millions, the regime claims millions upon millions, news agencies speak of hundreds of thousands, but in any case a turnout that the Islamic Republic's own media greatly inflated, it seems they themselves have come to believe that this means a great new power and that the people are with them, so they can beat the drums of war. In any case, this week-long show of parading Khamenei's body and his family and

10:33 so on is apparently ending tomorrow. Tonight the body is going from Iraq, from Karbala and Najaf, to Mashhad, and tomorrow at 2 p.m. there will apparently be the funeral procession followed by the burial. Of course, the rumors are again circulating that Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in Mashhad at his father's burial, along with family members, but it is still unclear. As I said before, if Mojtaba does not appear tomorrow either, then all this talk about security and so on is, in my view, excessive, and we must accept that he is either dead, or in a coma, or in such a wrecked state in terms of

11:26 his injuries and health that they cannot bring him out anywhere. Mrs. Farah Pahlavi has also announced that the Egyptian government informed her that, because of security and regional issues and these very conflicts, this year's memorial ceremony for Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi must be limited to his family, and she has asked admirers of Mr. Pahlavi to respect and comply with Egypt's request. Hoping for the victory of Iran and Iranians.