An Analysis of the Swiss Negotiations and Obstacles in Iran, Israel, and the US

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. Today is Monday, 1 Tir 1405, June 22, 2026. The negotiations in Switzerland, held on the shores of Lake Lucerne, have been judged successful, according to a statement issued by Qatar and Pakistan, the two mediators. According to this statement, after 18 hours of negotiations between the American team and the Iranian team, with representatives of Qatar and Pakistan present, they finally reached agreement on the course of negotiations over the next 60 days

0:57 and also on setting up three committees. The first is a technical committee, at the level of the two sides' experts, to discuss the nuclear issue. The second deals with sanctions and their removal. The third is a commission to oversee any tensions and problems that may arise during these 60 days. Above them sits a high-level board of the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar, which will follow up on the work of these three commissions and, if a problem arises, resolve it in its meetings, whether online or in person.

1:57 According to Mr. Ghalibaf, one achievement of these negotiations is the release of 12 billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds in two installments of 6 billion dollars. He said this had already been agreed in Qatar, but the release was signed in Switzerland. Likewise, Iran's exports of oil, petrochemicals and their derivatives are to be freed during these 60 days, and the US Treasury Department has issued the signatures for this. TankerTrackers, which monitors the movement of ships, has reported that 30

2:51 million barrels of Iranian oil passed through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz during this period. Most likely this is oil that had been stored on Iran's tankers because of the restrictions and the naval blockade, and it was released and sent off immediately. Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Ghalibaf left for Oman today to discuss what Iran calls arrangements for managing the Strait of Hormuz, and Mr. Pezeshkian leaves for Pakistan tomorrow to thank Pakistan for its role and presumably to discuss other issues as well.

3:50 But then there is Mr. Netanyahu, who is effectively the third side of the Iran–America conflict. America basically entered this war to defend Israel's security, yet Israel is not present at the peace negotiations. Today Mr. Netanyahu announced in a speech: "We are staying in Lebanon, and the army has no restrictions in this regard." The Israel–Lebanon conflict is a problem the Iranian side raised at the very start of the negotiations. Under the 14-article memorandum of understanding, the first article states that the ceasefire must include Lebanon too, and

4:47 Israel has violated it. But under the promises and arrangements that were made, Pakistan and Qatar have taken responsibility for going to the region, contacting Israel and Lebanon, and resolving this problem. In any case, as various news agencies have reported, this first step has been positive. As a result, the price of North Sea oil fell to 79 dollars and 44 cents a barrel. But if we look more closely, on all three sides, that is, Iran, America and Israel,

5:43 there are problems that make these 60 days of negotiations very delicate. On the Iranian side, there is the struggle between the hardliners and the moderates, as well as extremist talk such as "we must not open the Strait" or "we must not give up on the destruction of Israel," and similar things that keep being raised, sometimes on state television. Majlis deputies such as Mr. Nabavian, Mr. Rasaei and others say the same things. But in my view, the more fundamental problem is the statement that Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei has issued, or that has been attributed to him. In any case, whether or not he is alive, whoever wrote it has

6:37 gone exactly the way his father went. He stated that he had a different view, but since Mr. Pezeshkian said he agreed, he has in effect taken the responsibility off his own shoulders and thrown a little sop to the hardliners. Under the constitution, he is the one in charge of everything in the country. All decisions of the Supreme National Security Council must be signed by him before they can be implemented; in effect he has a veto over the Council's decisions, as defined in Article 176 of the constitution. When someone in that position behaves like this, he does not settle matters with the final word. On the contrary, he helps the infighting

7:31 continue. In this way, a set of red lines has been drawn for the Iranian negotiating team, such as on Lebanon, the proxy forces and similar issues, which will probably tie the Iranian side's hands even more during the negotiations. On the Israeli side, Mr. Netanyahu faces elections in October. He has announced that he will be a candidate and has no intention of stepping down as prime minister. According to a poll by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem,

8:26 92 percent of Israelis do not believe they won the war against Iran, and they think Mr. Netanyahu has in effect been defeated. Netanyahu is, of course, a veteran politician who has been Israel's prime minister for 18 years. Through all the twists and turns of Israeli politics, and with his maneuvers and tricks, he has managed to become the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history. Between now and the month of Mehr, when the elections take place, he may do things to improve his position so that his party wins again. But if the current trend continues and nothing special happens, Mr. Netanyahu will probably lose the election and

9:27 step down as prime minister. For this reason, things may happen on the Israeli side, which is one side of this conflict, that disrupt the negotiations and keep peace from being achieved. This is especially so because we know Israel is waiting for the chance to restart the war, with America's consent, and this time target Iran's energy infrastructure and in effect paralyze the country. On the American side, perhaps the main problem is Mr. Trump himself, who can't keep his mouth shut. He constantly talks, constantly gives interviews and says contradictory things. In any case, as he himself said, Mr.

10:30 Vance has taken these negotiations on his shoulders, and he is pursuing the path of peace. Vance, the Vice President of the United States, has this advantage: because he was on the presidential ticket and received the people's votes, the president cannot dismiss him, whereas Mr. Trump immediately fires other officials in his administration if they say anything contrary to his wishes. In this first round of negotiations, Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, Mr. Trump's close confidant and his son-in-law, were present too, and they probably keep Mr. Trump constantly informed about the negotiations. But when we look at the American team, they are all people around Mr. Vance; he brought people with him from the office of

11:25 the Vice President. So on the American side, Mr. Vance has his eye on the 2028 US election. He hopes to win over Mr. Trump's voter base in the Republican Party, which is also isolationist, rise within the Republican Party, and be the hero of peace. So he is trying with full seriousness to bring this election, I mean these negotiations, to a successful conclusion. In any case, over the next 60 days we must follow closely to see whether this futile, destructive and devastating war finally ends in a lasting peace,

12:26 or whether this deadly state of uncertainty, neither war nor peace, will continue to hang over the country. Meanwhile, the headquarters organizing Mr. Khamenei's funeral has announced that Mehrabad Airport will be closed from the 12th to the 16th of Tir. In Qom province there will be a flight ban on the 16th and 17th, and in Mashhad no flights will operate on the 17th and 18th. On the 13th of Tir, the procession of the body begins: two days at the Tehran Mosalla, then Najaf and Karbala, then Qom, then Mashhad, where he is apparently to be buried. After carting Khamenei's body around here and there, in this so-called grave-to-grave parade that the gentlemen have on their agenda, there is one point

13:29 we should watch for from now on: will Mojtaba Khamenei appear at this ceremony, now that there is no longer a war? If he does not appear, we must definitely conclude that either he is dead or he has some serious impairment that prevents him from appearing in public. After all, this is a ceremony for his father, his wife, his sister and his brother-in-law, and he would be expected to lead the funeral prayer over the dead. And then there is Mr. Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister. After talk of his resignation following the Labour Party's weak results in Britain's local council elections,

14:24 he resigned today. If his successor, reportedly Mr. Burnham, Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, takes office, he will be Britain's seventh prime minister in a decade, from 2016 until now. This shows how turbulent, volatile and conflict-ridden British domestic politics has become. Hoping for the victory of Iran and Iranians.