Possible deal: Trump orders a halt to Project Freedom

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, 16 Ordibehesht 1405, May 6, 2026. Axios has reported on an agreement between the Islamic Republic and the United States. According to the reports, it is only a one-page agreement of no more than six or seven lines. It is really an outline of an agreement, with a 30-day deadline for negotiating the details, reaching a result, finalizing it, and turning it into a permanent agreement. According to Axios and some

0:58 other sources, on this one page the United States has agreed to end the naval blockade of Iran, and Iran in turn will open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also accepted a halt to enrichment, but the duration ranges from 5 to 20 years and presumably has to be settled in detailed negotiations. In exchange, sanctions would be lifted and Iran's frozen funds released. As for the enriched uranium, it is not yet clear whether it would be shipped out of Iran or, inside Iran,

1:53 converted and down-blended to a lower concentration, and so on. That is what the news agencies are saying. But as usual, Mr. Trump gave several interviews today and said something different in each one, so they are not really worth going through, since some of what Mr. Trump says even contradicts itself. On the Iranian side, the Foreign Ministry spokesman responded very coolly, more or less denying it, and said only that we are still reviewing the American proposals. But what has actually happened is

2:50 that Mr. Trump ordered the so-called Freedom Project to stop for now. He had announced that under this project ships would be escorted through the Strait of Hormuz, with 15,000 American troops and 100 aircraft assigned to it, and two US-flagged ships had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Today he ordered it halted. Interestingly, just yesterday Defense Secretary Hegseth and General Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held a joint press conference and made a big show of this project: we've done this, we'll do that, we've brought in this many forces and we're going to carry it out. Today, in any case, Mr. Trump ordered

3:46 the project stopped. Shehbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, which is mediating these negotiations and working very hard at it, thanked Mr. Trump for halting the project. This suggests the Pakistanis probably asked Mr. Trump to stop it, because Iran had said this was a violation of the ceasefire. Iran had attacked Dubai, or rather the UAE; it had hit Fujairah, and it had also threatened to strike ships. In fact, after those two ships, there was no news of any others getting through, and today the news agencies and outlets that track this, such as TankerTrackers,

4:44 reported that no ship had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Each of these conflicting reports sends the oil markets up and down. Oil dropped from $114 back to $100 after the announcement that some agreement had been reached, and stock markets fall and rise and so on. This has become something some people profit from: anyone who knows in advance what Mr. Trump is going to say, given his contradictory statements, can make a fortune. In America in particular, betting sites now have a section for political bets, on the price of oil, on peace and war and so on, and people who bet on these things sometimes

5:44 make millions of dollars. But setting these issues aside, the question is, first, how large are Iran's frozen funds? If we follow various public sources, it is said that, for example, there are $20 billion in China, $6 billion in Qatar, $7 billion somewhere else, $1.5 billion there. Adding them up comes to about $44 billion: the amount of money of the Islamic Republic and of the country of Iran frozen in various places because of US sanctions. But many journalistic figures and estimates suggest that the amount of

6:39 Iran's money frozen in various accounts is greater than that, and there is talk of $80 billion or even $100 billion. Whatever the amount, the largest part is in China, because the oil was sold to China and the trade was with China. And even if the sanctions are lifted, it is unlikely the Chinese will pay out the money they are holding in dollars, in hard currency, in greenbacks. They will keep holding it in their own yuan, so Iran will still be forced to buy from China. But the question is this: suppose some amount between $40 billion and $100 billion, whatever we say, is released and the sanctions are lifted. Granted, there would presumably have to be

7:38 detailed negotiations on the scale of the JCPOA talks, with many technical points and twists and turns, and it is unlikely they could be concluded in a month. But even at best, suppose all of this is lifted as it was after the JCPOA. Would Iran's economic problems be solved? Would the danger of the economic tsunami we have talked about be removed? The reality is that five different crises have hit Iran's economy at once. As I said last time, this war is like an earthquake on the floor of the sea of Iran's economy, releasing huge waves that are far

8:35 bigger than anyone imagines. This earthquake has intensified or created five crises, some of which already existed. The first crisis is a crisis of production. Industrial output has fallen sharply because of the blows to infrastructure industries such as petrochemicals and steel, and to the industrial parks that were hit, whose reconstruction will take time and require capital, and also because of the problems with raw materials and the disruption of the industrial cycle. At the same time, because of the petrochemical problems, the lack of imports and so on, livestock feed and inputs have been affected, so

9:35 agricultural production and livestock farming have also been damaged. The second crisis is the collapse of the rial, which was already under way. But because of the high costs that have arisen, the costs of the war itself and the resulting problems, as well as budget deficits, unemployment, and the country's economy grinding to a halt, inflation and the fall of the rial have intensified. Economists have warned that although, for example, inflation on food items is now 115 percent, the figure could suddenly accelerate and we could see inflation

10:29 of several thousand percent, with the currency effectively collapsing. In any case, even in the current situation, the fall of the rial and price inflation have made things extremely critical. The third crisis is in the country's service sector, which makes up 50 percent of Iran's GDP. It includes transportation, shops, the bazaar and small traders, all the way to healthcare, medical treatment and hospitals, and the internet sector, on which many businesses depend; some 8 million people make a living from it. Startups, and then

11:30 Snap drivers, with talk of 8 million Snap drivers, and private taxis, as well as banking, insurance and the like. This is another sector that has run into many problems because of the war's effects on production and other sectors, and the government has also cut off the internet, so a large part of it has been hit that way. Within the service sector, housing and the jobs tied to it also make up a large share. The fourth point is recession. The International Monetary Fund projects the country's economic growth for 2026 at minus 6.1 percent, meaning Iran's economy will shrink by 6 percent.

12:29 The first sign of this is unemployment and businesses shutting down. The recession that already existed will deepen sharply, and this widespread recession will show itself as mass unemployment. The fifth crisis is uncertainty about the future, which halts investment and shrinks businesses. Speculation becomes widespread: buying foreign currency, gold, and quick-turnover dealing. So it is not only that, say, 4 million industrial workers lose their jobs and 7 million workers in services and small workshops are in trouble, or 8 million

13:26 Snap drivers and 8 million who make a living from the internet; millions of people connected to the housing sector are in trouble too. What we are really talking about is poverty and destitution that will engulf at least the bottom seven income deciles of the country, more than 20 million households and 60 million of the population. These huge waves will push millions into poverty and hunger, and the spread of insecurity, unemployment, sporadic and general protests and so on that follows will make things worse and worse, as I said in previous episodes. So,

14:22 can that $20 billion, $40 billion or $100 billion, even if released, prevent this tsunami? No, because the scale of the problem is half a trillion dollars in damage, and even with the money, reconstruction takes time. What is essential is that, in the shortest possible time, the vulnerable sections of society, at least the bottom seven income deciles, receive monthly assistance. And the wealth that has been unjustly taken by the Office of the Supreme Leader, by the IRGC, by the quasi-state entities, and amassed in many places through rent-seeking and privilege, must be returned to the people and

15:22 transferred to the people. We will talk more about this, about how it can actually be done and how the people must be protected against the huge waves of the tsunami that is coming. In hope of victory for Iran and Iranians.