The UAE's decisions and the possible collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Friday, 11 Ordibehesht 1405, May 1, 2026. The first of May is International Workers' Day, and I congratulate all of Iran's hardworking workers and all of the country's hardworking wage earners. Abdollah Movahed, a legend of world and Iranian wrestling, died yesterday, 10 Ordibehesht, at the age of 87, of a heart attack in Virginia in the United States. He won one Olympic gold medal, five world gold medals and two Asian gold medals. During the years he sat on the throne of world wrestling, he was champion year after year.

1:00 In the 70-kilogram weight class, until he retired from wrestling because of an injury, no one else was able to win the gold medal. Abdollah Movahed was renowned for his love of Iran and his patriotism, and he never bowed before power, whether the power of the Shah's government or the power of the Islamic Republic. He is one of the legendary champions of us Iranians, and we should place him alongside great figures such as Pouria-ye Vali and Gholamreza Takhti. I offer my condolences on the passing of this champion of the land of Iran to all Iranians, especially fans of

1:56 the sport of wrestling. Meanwhile, Narges Mohammadi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been transferred from Zanjan prison to a hospital CCU because of a serious heart condition. She apparently suffered a heart attack on 4 Farvardin, but the negligence of the officials meant that during this period she completely lost consciousness twice, and in the end they were forced to transfer her to the hospital. Responsibility for the lives of political prisoners lies with the regime that throws the country's children into prison. Now,

2:55 last night the Islamic Republic gave a new proposal to the United States through Pakistan. The details of this proposal are not known, but presumably, as a result of the negotiations that are going on by telephone, some points in it must have changed compared with the previous proposals. Mr. Trump, reacting to this proposal today, repeated the same old statements, including saying that either they make a deal or we bomb. But when reporters asked the White House spokesperson, she said, "We do not disclose the details of diplomatic negotiations."

3:49 Other developments related to the war, peace and the ceasefire: the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, which is the largest aircraft carrier in the world, has left the region, and the United States now has two aircraft carriers in the region, the George H. W. Bush and the Abraham Lincoln. Sixty days have passed since the start of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The U.S. Congress is raising the point that the president's deadline under the law is 60 days. Senator Kaine, the Democratic senator from Virginia, told Mr. Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, in the Senate that this is the main and important legal challenge facing the administration, and that Mr. Trump must now get permission from Congress. Mr.

4:52 Trump, of course, believes that previous presidents also violated this 60-day deadline, and in short he considers it unconstitutional and does not accept it. Mr. Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, of course made a different argument in Congress, which was that the ceasefire period is not counted toward these 60 days, and since we are now in a ceasefire, in short, there is still time on the 60 days for now. However, the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on one side, and the U.S. naval blockade of Iran on the other, continue to transfer this conflict in the region onto the people of Iran and put pressure on them, and on the world as well, including through an increase in

5:53 the price of chemical fertilizer. Because petrochemical products from the region cannot get out of the region, there has been an 80 percent increase in the price of chemical fertilizer, which, according to the CEO of one of the largest chemical fertilizer companies, Yara, is adding extra costs to agricultural production equivalent to 10 billion meals every week. Oil has reached $124 a barrel, and that is just on paper; in actual physical transactions, figures of around $150 to $160 are being cited. This has put pressure on various energy markets,

6:52 airlines, countries and various places, but these effects are greater in Iran, and this policy, in which the economic resilience of the two sides is supposedly being put to the test, is coming at the cost of pressure on millions of Iranians. Massive waves resulting from poverty, hunger and shortages are arriving in Iran, which, as I said before, have pushed at least seven income deciles of the population below the poverty line and will soon push the eighth decile below the poverty line as well, and on top of this situation comes the unemployment of 4 million industrial workers.

7:52 This is an issue the regime thinks it can answer with its usual methods, through repression. In my view, apart from being repressive, inhumane and brutal, it is a miscalculation the regime is making in the face of raging waves, perhaps one could say a tsunami, of poverty, hunger and economic pressure. As I have said before, the largest resources of Iran's economy are under the control of the Office of the Supreme Leader, the IRGC, and the network of thieves who make up the structure of the regime, and now is the time for these national resources, which in fact belong to the nation of Iran,

8:48 to be nationalized and returned to the people, to come to the rescue in this current situation. These resources amount to more than 200 to 250 billion dollars, figures that could easily provide, for a long time, a monthly assistance payment equivalent to $400 for every household in the lower income deciles. Now, the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC and OPEC+, which took effect today, is another important event that in practice not only exposes OPEC and OPEC+ to pressure, and even to ineffectiveness and collapse, but also exposes the Cooperation Council of the six Persian Gulf countries

9:54 to threat and collapse. The UAE, whose production is between 3.3 and 3.5 million barrels per day, ranks in terms of production after Iran, which produces 3.7 to 3.8 million barrels per day. Of course, the largest producers in OPEC and OPEC+ are Saudi Arabia and Russia, each of which produces more than 9 million barrels of oil per day. With this exit, the UAE in fact wants to raise its production to as much as 5 million barrels per day and in this way provide resources for itself for its investments. Of course, now that there is a crisis in the Persian Gulf and the Strait

10:51 of Hormuz, in practice this increase in production and so on will not solve anything. But this move also has political and geopolitical reasons. In fact, the UAE wants to come out from under Saudi Arabia's shadow as well, given the disagreements it had with Saudi Arabia in Yemen, the rivalry they now have, and the political differences that have emerged between them. Likewise, because of the damage it has suffered in this war from Iran's attacks, it takes a harsher position toward Iran than the other members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, who believe the war should die down and calm should return to the region. But the UAE firmly holds that

11:45 one way or another, the United States and Israel must put an end to the Islamic Republic regime. In addition, the UAE's closeness to Israel in the Abraham Accords is another issue that has drawn analysts' attention, including the fact that it recently bought a laser defense system from Israel to counter Iranian drones, which is said to be capable of intercepting 50 percent of drones. In any case, this move by the UAE, and the harsher reactions it is showing to this war compared with the others, is an event that may leave effects

12:43 beyond this war, whether in OPEC, in regional alliances, or in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. In the hope of victory for Iran and Iranians.