Power struggle in Tehran, negotiations in Islamabad

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. Today is Friday, 4 Ordibehesht 1405, April 24, 2026. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran continues, but so do the US naval blockade and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, it was announced today that Mr. Araghchi has gone to Islamabad, with Muscat and Moscow as his next destinations. From Washington, Mr. Jared Kushner and Mr. Steve Witkoff have also left for Islamabad, so they will probably meet Mr. Araghchi there. It is said that peace negotiations between the two sides' expert delegations in Islamabad

1:03 will continue so that the necessary documents can probably be prepared. At the same time, however, Israel's Channel 12 has reported that disputes have escalated in Tehran, that Mr. Qalibaf has been sidelined, and that from now on Mr. Jalili will head the Iranian delegation. Channel 12 does spread a lot of rumors, and at least no such news has come from Iranian sources. But in general, the Israelis' line on Iran is to push aside, or even kill, moderate figures, people like Kamal

1:57 Kharrazi or Ali Larijani, who were at any rate more moderate, so that the field is left to the sloganeering, apocalyptic hardliners who put forward unattainable slogans, and so the state of war and crisis continues. As for the triangle in this war, that is, Israel, the United States and Iran, in the words of The Economist magazine, this is a war that all three sides have lost. The Economist says the big loser has been Trump. Iran has certainly lost and is a loser, because by the Americans' own estimate nearly $500 billion in damage has been inflicted on Iran, and more than 3,500 of our compatriots have been killed,

2:59 and according to Iran's minister of communications, 10 million people whose livelihoods depend on the internet are currently out of work. It is also predicted that 4 million of our industrial workers will lose their jobs. On top of these losses and problems, the war has also shaped political developments inside Iran in favor of the more hardline, more militaristic, and more sloganeering factions. But Israel has not been much of a winner either, because according to Israeli sources it spent $17 billion on this war, and out of its $220 billion budget for 2026, $45 billion is now

4:00 allocated to military spending, which is a big number. This figure, which makes up more than 20 percent of the entire budget for 2026, has put pressure on Israel. In addition, many schools and businesses, as well as the airport and so on, were closed there during the war, and Mr. Netanyahu's position in the upcoming election has become shrouded in uncertainty, given the attacks his opponents are making on him. As for the American side, it is said to have spent more than $40 billion directly on this war, and the resulting rise in the price of gasoline,

4:57 energy and fuel, especially diesel, which trucks use, and so on, has had effects in America. For the upcoming US elections in November (Aban) this year, all the predictions are that in the House of Representatives, all 435 of whose members are elected every two years, the Republicans will probably lose their majority and the Democrats will take control of the House. In the Senate, where one third of the members are elected every two years because senators serve six-year terms, the elections are being held in states and seats that Republicans traditionally win, but

5:58 it is predicted that they might even lose their majority in the Senate. In any case, even if the Republicans lose just one chamber, especially the House of Representatives, which has to approve the budget, and given that many measures require the approval of both chambers, this will probably make Mr. Trump's situation worse, especially in his dealings with Congress. It is also said that the Republican Party has concluded, for the November elections, that it cannot count on Mr. Trump to win votes for its candidates, because his popularity has fallen sharply; there is even talk of the thirties and twenties percent. In addition, regarding Israel,

7:04 it is said that polls in America show that more than 61 percent of Americans have turned against Israel and believe that Israel dragged America into this war, which is what the New York Times had described at length in its report on the 6th. In particular, Mr. Trump's own voting base, the well-known MAGA crowd, "Make America Great Again," who are Mr. Trump's die-hard, fanatical supporters, are mostly in favor of isolationism and do not want to go to war at all. Since they have come to believe that Mr. Netanyahu dragged Mr. Trump into this war, they are extremely angry.

8:04 In any case, it is true that on one side Mr. Trump has imposed a naval blockade on Iran at the Strait of Hormuz, and on the other side Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, so the situation has again turned into a contest of endurance, this time in the economic arena. Mr. Trump has said several times that he hopes the pressure of blocking Iran's exports of oil and petroleum products will wreck Iran's economy and bring Iran to its knees. Iran, for its part, believes that by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, the economic pressure this puts on energy prices and the world economy as a whole will make Mr. Trump back down sooner. In any case, the two sides are now in this

9:00 situation, and there is talk of negotiations in Islamabad. European Union leaders also held a meeting in Nicosia. The American proposal to expel Spain from NATO was received, but they opposed it. Even Ms. Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, who among European leaders personally has the closest relationship with Mr. Trump and his team, declared that NATO will remain united and that Europeans' strength lies in their unity. Moreover, articles in Western newspapers show that Britain, which has been America's closest ally for at least the past 70 years, has also reached the lowest level of friendly relations with America in 70 years.

10:01 In any case, when we look at this scene, we see that this situation has made peace and ending this war, more than ever, something that every side, all three sides of this war, must seriously think about, so that this situation is brought to an end as soon as possible. On the Iranian side, of course, it must be said that a regime that stands against its own people and is engaged in repressing them has continued to intensify its repression, and has put increased repression on its agenda using the war as a pretext. Besides

10:56 chanting "Haydar, Haydar" in the streets and bringing the Hashd al-Shaabi, the Fatemiyoun and the Zeinabiyoun into the streets to create fear and terror and to flaunt them in front of the people, they have started executing political prisoners on the pretext of spying for Israel, collaborating in the war with a hostile state, and the like, which has become a cause of very serious concern, and all the various human rights organizations have spoken out in protest. Abolfazl Ghadiani, a veteran political prisoner, has published a statement in which he rightly points out that the main culprit of this war is the Islamic Republic and Mr. Khamenei,

11:51 who for 47 years pursued policies of hostility toward America and the annihilation of Israel. On the basis of these very policies, which have been among the main reasons for the country's isolation, all this damage has been inflicted on the country, such as the proxy forces, the nuclear project, and so on, and in the end a war. He has called for the people to move beyond this regime, and the solution that Mr. Ghadiani insists on is holding a referendum and submitting to the vote of the people. In hope of the victory of Iran and