Ceasefire in Lebanon, opening of the Strait of Hormuz

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Friday, 28 Farvardin 1405, April 17, 2026. The developments of the past 48 hours seem to point toward peace and toward the negotiations between Iran and America reaching a conclusion. After Iran announced that it would accept the ceasefire only if a ceasefire was also established in Lebanon and Israel's attacks on Hezbollah stopped, Mr. Trump put pressure on Israel, and a 10-day ceasefire was established in Lebanon. The President of Lebanon and Mr. Netanyahu are supposed to come to America, and at the White House

1:02 Mr. Trump has said, "I will make peace between them," although the issue in Lebanon is not peace between the Lebanese government and the Israeli government; the issue is Hezbollah. Hezbollah, of course, has also welcomed this ceasefire. The war that Israel waged in Lebanon in one week left more than 2,000 dead, and now that there is a ceasefire, thousands of Lebanese Shia citizens are returning to southern Lebanon, to their homes and their lives. Following this acceptance by America, in effect America's acceptance of Iran's particular demand, Mr. Araghchi also announced today that freedom of

1:55 navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is in effect, and as long as the ceasefire holds, ships can pass freely. In Iran, of course, this met with protests from IRGC outlets such as Tasnim, Javan and Fars News Agency. Their main objection was: why aren't you being transparent about the negotiations? At least tell us what is going on. Why don't you tell us anything? They also criticized the fact that announcing the opening or closing of the strait should be the IRGC's call, and things like that. But the immediate reaction to this

2:49 freedom of navigation was that the price of oil fell from perhaps above $100 a barrel to $89, and the world of energy, so to speak, breathed a sigh of relief, given the effects that the oil price had been having on everything. On the other side, Mr. Starmer and Mr. Macron, the leaders of Britain and France, hosted a meeting of more than 40 countries, which took part online, aimed at guaranteeing freedom of passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, they turned to this only after the war, to help with freedom of

3:48 navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and they were met with Mr. Trump's jibes and harsh words. Once again he called NATO a paper tiger and said, in short, that they didn't come to open it when I needed them, and now that it's open, what do they want to do, and so on. In any case, after the departure of Mr. Asim Munir, Field Marshal Asim Munir, the chief of the Pakistani army, in effect the highest-ranking officer in Pakistan's military and, one could say, in some ways the most influential person in Pakistan, it appears that what he said in Tehran has borne fruit and opened the way for negotiations. It is said, and I mentioned this before, that this Mr.

4:46 Asim Munir is in fact the one who recommended Mr. Ghalibaf to Trump, and that, with the help of Turkey and Egypt and other countries, they are trying to help bring this war to a safe end. In any case, setting aside Mr. Trump's rambling statements, he is now even talking about the negotiations in Islamabad reaching a conclusion this very weekend, that is, Saturday and Sunday, and he has even said it is not unlikely that he himself will go to Islamabad for the final signing, so to speak.

5:36 As I said, Mr. Trump gives about six or seven interviews a day, and in between the interviews he posts left and right on social media and says all sorts of things that are sometimes contradictory, so it is very hard to understand what he ultimately wants to say. He has now turned into a moment-by-moment reporter of what is happening in the negotiations and how they are progressing, unlike the Iranian side, which is negotiating, or moving things forward, in complete silence. But taken together, it seems that on the points of disagreement, namely the issue of zero enrichment or a halt to enrichment for

6:30 five years, as was said, or twenty years, as was said, or less or more, or the release of $20 billion of Iran's money in exchange for handing over 400 kilos of uranium, or things of that kind—in any case, these are rumors circulating in the media, although Mr. Trump denies many of them or implicitly confirms them. In any case, Axios has reported that a three-part peace agreement has been prepared and is being worked on. As for whether it will reach a conclusion: as I said before, last time there was severe disagreement within the Iranian delegation in the negotiations, and whether that disagreement has been resolved inside Iran,

7:26 or, to put it another way, whether the pragmatists in Iran have managed to get the better of the principlists and the sloganeers or not, and whether the tug of war and the power struggle in Tehran, or rather the power jungle in Tehran, has managed to turn toward rationality and securing national interests or not—I think this will be better understood later from the course of the negotiations. In any case, the countries of the region are also divided for now. Reportedly, the United Arab Emirates is strongly opposed, and

8:18 given the blows it has taken, it believes, standing more on Israel's side, that the current regime must go at any cost and be crushed. But Saudi Arabia, which has more influence among the six Persian Gulf countries, reportedly wants peace, reconciliation and reconstruction, and believes that in that region they have to live with Iran and the other countries one way or another, and that moving toward dangerous actions and open hostility, the way Israel does, for example, and head-on confrontations could result in more war and destruction. As for Hezbollah, given that Mr. Trump has accepted that a ceasefire with Hezbollah

9:14 be established and is pursuing peace in Lebanon, it seems that the issue of the proxy forces, with Hezbollah at their head, has probably been set aside for now, or else it would have to be imposed by American force. The demand for sidelining the proxy forces, which Israel insisted on, has for now been overshadowed by the other issues in these negotiations. In any case, we hope that in the next two or three days good news will arrive of reaching an agreement, reconciliation and peace. Because our country, with $270 billion in damage done to its various sectors,

10:12 from industry and infrastructure to construction and so on, needs to get moving again as soon as possible, so that the lost opportunities from this damage are reduced and the country's wheels can start turning again. Hoping for the victory of Iran and Iranians.