Three critical days ahead: negotiations or escalating war in the region

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, 5 Farvardin 1405, March 25, 2026. The five-day deadline Mr. Trump set, which expires this Friday, has been accompanied by a series of diplomatic moves. On one side, Pakistan has announced that it has delivered America's 15-point plan to Iran. On the other, Iran has sent its response to Islamabad, and what Press TV has published is a five-point plan.

0:53 The American plan essentially has the same three main pillars, enrichment and the nuclear program, missiles, and proxies, along with some side issues and so on. Iran's plan includes a halt to the war, compensation, a guarantee against renewed attacks, an end to the war on all fronts, and the exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. In their 15 points, the Americans have proposed zero enrichment, limiting missile range to the country's defensive needs, the handover of enriched uranium, and other issues along those lines, as well as an end to support for proxy forces, and so on. In

1:53 return, they have offered to lift the sanctions, and even the snapback mechanism, and so on. The Iranian side has said that the war must be halted, compensation must be paid for the attacks that have taken place, and there must be a guarantee against renewed attacks. It has also said the war must end on all fronts, the "resistance groups" in the region, meaning the Islamic Republic's proxy forces, must be safe, and Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz must be officially recognized. On that point, there is talk of charging ships passing through

2:45 this strait tolls of up to $2 million. In any case, with the announcement of these five points, various officials of the Islamic Republic have effectively said that they have held no negotiations with the Americans and will not accept the American plan. These include the Foreign Ministry spokesman (Mr. Araghchi himself has not spoken), the government spokesperson, and the spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, at various levels. Meanwhile, the reports coming from inside the regime say that Islamic Republic officials actually believe they have the upper hand in the war, and that the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz, the closing of this

3:45 waterway, and the pressure on the oil market will force Mr. Trump to retreat more and more. On the other side, however, the media report that 2,000 to 3,000 paratroopers from America's 82nd Airborne Division are being deployed to the region from North Carolina, and 5,000 Marines are also on their way, all arriving by this Friday. The American plan is reportedly to occupy Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, especially Qeshm Island, which overlooks the Strait of Hormuz, in effect to open the Strait of Hormuz by military force and

4:43 occupy Iranian islands. Of course, from the Iranian side it should be noted that they have declared that if American forces set foot on Iranian soil on the Iranian islands, that is exactly what Iran wants, and it will massacre them and teach them a lesson. Some of this may well be wartime bravado, but it raises the critical question of whether, at the end of this week, after Friday, we should expect war in the Persian Gulf, and whether the destruction of the country's energy infrastructure and power grid, which Mr. Trump has said will happen, will actually take place. These are causes

5:44 for concern. Mr. Ghalibaf has also stated that "we are expecting forces from an Arab country to move to capture Iranian islands." The speculation is that this refers to the UAE, and that forces would launch from there to occupy the three islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb. On the other hand, it is said that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pressuring America, now that the war is under way, to continue it until the Islamic Republic is destroyed and to intensify the attacks. In addition, the Saudis had stated that if Iran fires one more missile or drone

6:38 at them, they will retaliate and declare war. Their military ally is, of course, Pakistan, and Pakistan had also announced that if Saudi Arabia were attacked, it might enter the war, although right now Pakistan is acting as a mediator. Turkey has likewise said that it is passing messages between Iran and America. But the war has in fact already reached Iraq, because the Hashd al-Shaabi forces attacked an American base, and the Iraqi cabinet has approved that if the Hashd al-Shaabi is attacked by America, it has the right to defend itself. So a war front will open in Iraq.

7:37 In addition, the Islamic Republic claims it has fired missiles at the Israel–Lebanon border, in effect laying down preparatory fire to open the way for a ground operation by Hezbollah forces from Lebanon into Israel. This has also escalated tensions between Iran and Lebanon, because the Lebanese president rejected the credentials of the Islamic Republic's ambassador and gave him 72 hours to leave Lebanese soil. Hezbollah and Amal, who are close to Iran, have now said that they do not recognize

8:28 the president's statement and that Iran's ambassador must stay. The Islamic Republic has also attacked, mainly with drones, the bases of Iranian Kurdish parties such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan and the Komala Party of Toilers, whose camps also house women, children, schools and civilian facilities, and several people have been killed so far. It has also attacked the Kurdistan Region itself with drones and missiles, for which the Islamic Republic later apologized and said it was a mistake. In any case, in the midst of this fear and hope

9:19 and these struggles, we do not know what will happen. Will we see an escalation of the war at the end of this week, not only in Iran and between Iran and America but in all the countries of the region, or will it come to negotiations? One clause of the American proposal is a 30-day ceasefire. But while these exchanges are going on, Israel is continuing its work. In the past 24 hours, for the first time, it carried out heavy strikes on Mashhad, including the headquarters of the 77th Khorasan Division, and also on Yazd, Shiraz, the Alborz industrial city and Qazvin, Tehran, and also on Andimeshk and Dezful. In Andimeshk, water tunnels were destroyed and water

10:16 flooded into the city. Israel has also attacked the headquarters of the 92nd Armored Division in Khuzestan. In short, the one country that perhaps knows what it wants to gain from this war is Israel, which is busy day and night hitting military and law-enforcement centers, army forces, factories, industrial capacity, military production and so on. Meanwhile, within the power structure, a gang has formed around Ahmad Vahidi, the current IRGC commander, along with Bagher Zolghadr as national security adviser and Mohsen Rezaei as military adviser to the leadership, meaning Mojtaba Khamenei. It is said that Hossein Taeb is also

11:16 with them. In fact, this gang consists of the same people who were in command during the Iran–Iraq War, who dragged the war on for an extra six and a half years and created those catastrophes. In that war, in the first year and a half, at the cost of 30,000 Iranian lives, we managed to drive the enemy out and liberate our land from Iraq. But in the following six and a half years, more than 230,000 people were killed, and in the end it all came to nothing. That was the fault of this very gang, which now, one could say, has in a way taken control of the fate of this war. Interestingly, Mr. Ghalibaf, whose name is on everyone's lips these days, is not really a player in this gang, although he has the backing of Hossein Taeb,

12:17 who has supported him in the past. In any case, one could say that this corrupt gang, which has taken charge of the war in what is almost like a coup, may bring disaster upon the country just as in the Iran–Iraq War. Interestingly, Mr. Zolghadr, who is also a master of conspiracy, is the translator of a book from Arabic into Persian about the reappearance of the Hidden Imam, in which the author predicts that a war will break out, that they will be defeated, and so on, but that then the Hidden Imam will appear and destroy Israel. That is the kind of madness and the kind of worldview that people like Mr. Zolghadr have.

13:12 Hoping for the victory of Iran and Iranians.