Reviewing the military and political options on Trump's table

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, 1 Bahman 1404, January 21, 2026. First, let me apologize for not being able to be with you on Monday, because of a number of problems that had come up and the emergency conditions that all of us and all activists are now facing. The news reaching us from Iran shows that the regime has in effect imposed full-blown martial law. Beyond the streets, the nights, searching people, spreading terror among citizens, shutting down the internet and controlling

0:54 communications, they have also set up a news center in the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, and all domestic and international journalists, and the bureaus of the news agencies in Iran, must get their news solely and exclusively from this center. Otherwise, domestic outlets are shut down, foreign ones have their bureaus closed, and the Ministry of Guidance revokes their work permits. This control of the news has led many Western news agencies, bureaus and newspapers to simply prefer not to report the news the regime hands out, and domestic outlets are under the same control, except that we hear that

1:50 the Turkish news agency, or one or two Arab news agencies and media outlets, relay the regime's news. As for the toll of this crime against humanity, carried out by Khamenei and a number of traitorous IRGC commanders, who brought foreign forces such as the Zainabiyoun, the Fatemiyoun and the Hashd al-Shaabi into the streets, hired criminals and people with criminal records, and also used parts of the Basij, the IRGC and others: this crime against humanity, while they have still thrown that black curtain of censorship over

2:47 the country and cut off communications with the world. Yet news trickles out bit by bit, to the point that the Norway-based Iran Human Rights organization has so far identified and confirmed more than 5,000 victims of this crime against humanity, and it is estimated that the real number may be two to three, or even four, times this figure. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of prisoners range from 16,000 and 17,000 up to 30,000 and even 50,000. As for whether they will reopen the internet or keep it shut, and what they will do: there is now pressure from the

3:47 country's economy as well, because at least 8 million jobs in Iran depend on the internet, and the owners of such businesses are under severe pressure. Even many industrial and commercial companies have run into trouble because of the internet shutdown, as have banking transactions, insurance, and so on and so forth. So there is a great deal of pressure, but the machinery of repression, Khamenei himself and his repression machine still refuse to give in and say this atmosphere must continue. In any case, we have to wait and see; sooner or later they will be forced to pull this black curtain

4:44 aside, and the moon of truth will not stay behind the clouds; the sun of truth will come out. The scale of Khamenei's crime will become clear, in a chapter that should be considered a turning point in Iran's recent history, and the line of blood the Islamic Republic has drawn between itself and the people will certainly have consequences, consequences that will catch up with it and gradually smooth the path to its fall. But the big question facing many Iranians, one everyone is following, is this: Mr. Trump, the president of the United States, who

5:38 repeatedly told the people of Iran that if they kill, if they carry out massacres, he will not allow it, he will punish them, he will retaliate, and in effect gave the nation a kind of assurance about joining the demonstrations, and many others echoed his words as well, yet he did not do so, and the regime's killing has reached this stage. So a great moral responsibility rests on Mr. Trump's shoulders, and he is under pressure, even from members of his own party, to do something. He ordered the US military to prepare plans and to move the necessary

6:34 assets for those plans to the region, which led CENTCOM, the Middle East command, to hold several days of meetings, reportedly in Washington, and put the plans they drew up on Mr. Trump's desk. As is customary, it is said that at least three plans, from the easiest to the hardest, are on Mr. Trump's desk, and he must decide. These plans reportedly range from a cyberattack, which Mr. JD Vance once mentioned, for example, to strikes on some IRGC centers and the regime's communications, logistics and so on, and the hardest one is in fact an all-out attack in which

7:30 Khamenei, the bloodthirsty dictator, and the traitorous IRGC commanders and their centers would be struck and destroyed by the United States. In any case, which of these Mr. Trump chooses, a cyberattack, a cyberattack combined with some military strikes, or a heavy attack to take out the dictator and the commanders, which could also be followed by cyber operations and the like, is for Mr. Trump to decide. As for the political consequences of each of these, a working group has apparently been formed in the White House. There is talk of 8 or 9 people in this working group who are examining the political consequences of each option. They

8:34 are also trying to put the political options arising from each of these operations on Mr. Trump's desk for a decision. For example, if strikes are carried out that do not lead to the regime's fall, the regime will be strengthened, and it will use this as an example to claim that those who took to the streets wanted to pave the way for an American war, and in effect it will unleash this wounded, ferocious wolf even more on the people. Another option is the one Mr. Witkoff raised, that this is a good time to go and negotiate and extract concessions and so on, though he has apparently been told not to say any more, and this talk has more or less

9:32 been shut down, although it is still an option. Another political option is that the US would back an individual, a movement, a faction that declares itself ready to go and take charge of Iran, and, for example, if it chooses the most severe military option, it would also support this group to go in and take over the country, as it did with Chalabi in Iraq. This has opponents in the White House, who say its chances of success are slim, that America would get bogged down even more than before, and that there is the experience of Iraq. On top of that, given that this faction has always said emphatically in its pamphlets and statements that

10:29 it wants to replace everyone, swap them out, change them, purge them, vet them and so on, Mr. Trump himself also in a way rejected this option, saying that what happened in Iraq was unwise, that they removed everyone and then wanted to install new people. Another option, politically, is the Venezuelan model: the US strikes, takes out Khamenei and a number of the regime's leaders, but has made an arrangement with a Ms. Rodríguez-type figure inside the regime who can keep the country stable in terms of security and administration, and then later they would see where to go with that person and what to do, with the next steps as in Venezuela. The problem is that Ms. Rodríguez in Venezuela was the vice president and

11:30 legally became president after him; their Socialist Party is in power and accepts her, and for now that structure and establishment in Venezuela remains in place. But in Iran, Khamenei has no number two, and anyone who might want to succeed him, whether Mojtaba or someone else, the situation is so chaotic that they could not take charge that way, and they are not people one can come to terms with. Nor do the options on the regime's margins, like Mr. Rouhani and others, have any direct hand. In any case, this political option has its own complexities too. And the last option that will be placed on Mr. Trump's desk is that, before stealing

12:23 the minaret, he digs the well first, as the saying goes: that for the aftermath of striking Khamenei and the regime's leaders and so on, there should be a plan for a pluralistic and politically diverse council in which all the country's social strata, factions and ethnic groups can see their representatives, instead of turning on one another afterward as in Iraq, and a provisional government that can both establish security and immediately take charge of the country's bureaucracy to deliver services to the people, so that the country does not come apart at the seams. In any case, each of these four options has its own issues, and the decision on this matter, which is in a sense complementary to or tied to the military options,

13:23 is on Mr. Trump's desk, and he must ultimately decide. But news came from Iran today that the Reform Front, made up of 18 parties, organizations, associations and groups, held a meeting and had prepared a statement calling for Khamenei's resignation. But while they were discussing it, agents of the Ministry of Intelligence went to their meeting place and warned that if this statement were published, they would arrest all of them. It is said that people like Ms. Azar Mansouri said, "We will publish it; arrest us, we don't care," but people like Mr. Jalaeipour strongly objected and said we must not do this. In any case, whoever said whatever, the result was

14:20 that the statement was in fact not put to a vote, did not pass, and could not be published. In hope of victory for Iran and Iranians.