Khamenei at an impasse over discontent among military and security forces

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Wednesday, 26 Azar 1404, December 17, 2025. The commander of the country's air defense, that is, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, has been changed. We should note that we have three headquarters by the name of Khatam al-Anbiya. One is the Khatam al-Anbiya economic headquarters, which belongs to the IRGC, is the center of its economic activities, and is sometimes a den of thieves. Another is the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters that takes command in wartime, under which all military branches must be placed. This is the operational headquarters whose commander, Gholam

0:57 Ali Rashid, Israel killed on the very first night, and it killed his successor as well. The third is the Khatam al-Anbiya Air Defense Headquarters, again by the same name, affiliated with the Army Air Force, which is responsible for the country's air protection. In any case, Alireza Sabahifard has been removed, and Alireza Elhami has taken his place. Sabahifard, who has been removed, is the same man who claimed they had shot down an F-35, which later turned out to be a lie. Earlier this same month of Azar, Hamid Vahedi, commander of the Army Air Force, had been replaced by Bahman Behmard, and before that, on the first of Azar, Kiumars Heydari, commander of the Army Ground

1:59 Forces, was replaced by Ali Jahanshahi. But these reshuffles have not taken place, and are not taking place, only in the Army. These changes, even more than in the Army, though they are not announced, have taken place in the Vali-ye Amr Corps, which is responsible for protecting the lives of Khamenei and his family; in the Ansar al-Mahdi Corps, which is responsible for protecting the country's officials; among the main officials of the Office of the Supreme Leader itself; in the IRGC Intelligence Organization; in the Ministry of Intelligence. In short, there have been sweeping changes. After the 12-day war, two main problems

2:56 have in fact emerged within the military and security forces. One is the inefficiency and incompetence that caused the defeat, the military and intelligence defeat. The other, more important for Khamenei, has been distrust and the presence of infiltrators at all levels, so that perhaps anyone who survived, especially among the IRGC commanders, has come under suspicion, and likewise in the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Vali-ye Amr Corps, Ansar al-Mahdi, the Al-Mahdi Corps, and so on. As a result, they were forced to make sweeping changes.

3:50 But that is on the side of Khamenei, the commander-in-chief. On the side of these institutions themselves, widespread discontent has arisen. That is, the personnel, the rank and file of these apparatuses, the military apparatuses, are sharply pointing the finger of accusation or blame at the senior commanders and at Mr. Khamenei personally, whose incompetence caused this disgraceful defeat. There is also their discontent with their living conditions, discrimination, corruption, and so on. The third issue is uncertainty about the future, especially in the security and repressive apparatuses: if the country

4:49 undergoes changes, and it is pregnant with change, what will become of them? In fact, they are having second thoughts. This has caused a major crisis within these forces. This is a process seen plenty of times, for example in Russia after the First World War, or even after the Second World War, which Khrushchev took advantage of to come to power. Or the famous example of Argentina, where after the ruling military's defeat in the Malvinas, or Falklands, war against Britain, the discontented rank and file gradually joined the people. Or in Serbia after the Balkan war and the NATO operation, which the Otpor students took advantage of and eventually brought Milošević down.

5:48 So this development, which was in fact predictable, is one of the consequences of the 12-day war, in which Mr. Khamenei and his senior commanders not only were defeated but could not even protect their own lives. Khamenei's absence and his going into his hole have made matters worse. And rightly, questions have arisen among the rank and file of these intelligence and security apparatuses: why is this helpless commander so cowardly, and where is he? Why was he never seen among the people in the midst of those 12 days of war? And since then, as soon as Israeli planes show up over Iraq, he goes back into his hole.

6:47 Now, Mr. Araghchi's trip to Moscow today, in my view, displayed the ugly face of dependence on and subservience to Moscow. Because on this trip, which apparently will last several days, in his meeting with Mr. Lavrov he praised Russia's support for Iran, while everyone knows that Russia, apart from some talk about, for example, the snapback mechanism and such, since it is itself under sanctions, has done nothing serious for the Islamic Republic. On the contrary, at critical moments it has cooperated with Israel. It used to switch off its air defense in Syria

7:41 so that Israel could carry out its operations. Right now it won't even repair the S-300 air defense, let alone give Iran the S-400, and there are other cases that clearly show Russia plays Khamenei and his regime like a child. Interestingly, Mr. Araghchi emphasized that "we trust Russia's good faith." Meanwhile, Venezuela and the Maduro regime, which after Syria can be said to be the Islamic Republic's most important allied government and an important bridgehead in Latin America, on which the Islamic Republic has spent billions of dollars,

8:37 as we have discussed before, from building 10,000 housing units to a car factory, from a bank to supermarkets and so on, as well as smuggling oil for them after the sanctions and helping the Maduro regime suppress its people, has now come under intense pressure from the Trump administration. Today Mr. Trump announced that he has ordered a complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers, which were in fact sent by the Islamic Republic to smuggle Venezuelan oil and deliver it to China. Many believe that the Trump administration's course will ultimately be to topple the Maduro government, and

9:35 heavy negotiations are also under way behind the scenes. If this happens, it can be said that after the fall of Assad, the other most important bridgehead, another government that the Islamic Republic has backed and spent money on there, taken from the people's pockets, will also fall. Meanwhile, Mr. Mostafa Tajzadeh, the courageous political prisoner, has given a detailed interview from inside prison to the French magazine Le Point, which has been published on the magazine's website. The questions are delivered into the prison by various means, and the prisoner writes the answers and sends them out during visits or by other methods that the prisoners

10:34 know, and then the magazine translates and publishes it. In this interview, Mr. Tajzadeh raised five fundamental points. First, he clearly and explicitly called for an end to clerical rule and the Guardianship of the Jurist and a transition to democracy. Second, he supported the formation of a constituent assembly and holding a referendum on the constitution as a whole. Third, he stressed that reform within the framework of this constitution, with the Guardianship of the Jurist in place, has reached a dead end and is not feasible. Fourth, he emphasized civil resistance and the unity of the people to

11:31 push back the regime and, in fact, to transition away from it, and he also stressed no foreign intervention and no violence. Fifth, he supported the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, especially the valuable role of women at the forefront of the Iranian people's struggle. Thus it can be said that Mr. Tajzadeh, who was one of the prominent figures of the reform movement, is now completely in the camp of those seeking a transition, and he effectively supports moving beyond this regime through civil resistance, a referendum ballot box, and so on.

12:26 And the Oscar Academy today announced, in some categories, its shortlists, which name 15 contenders for each category. The film "It Was Just an Accident," made by Jafar Panahi, is among the 15 international films for the Oscar for best foreign-language film. Likewise, "Cutting Through Rocks," a feature documentary made by Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni, is among the 15 documentaries for the Oscar. The film "Cause of Death: Unknown," made by Ali Zarnegar, which was submitted by the Farabi Foundation and the Islamic

13:21 Republic, failed to make the initial shortlist of 15 films. Next, the Oscar Academy, which has more than 6,000 voting members, will usually select 5 final films from among these, 5 nominees, and on Oscar night the final vote, one winner from among those 5, will be announced. Here's hoping for victory for Iran and Iranians.