With threats from the IRGC and Larijani, is the risk of renewed war serious?

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. It is Monday, 3 Azar 1404, November 24, 2025. First, I apologize that on Friday I was unable to present the program to you, as per the schedule of three days a week, Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, because of the many issues and problems that had come up. Today I am with you. A serious issue that has brought the people of Iran, a large portion of them in Tehran and in big cities like Isfahan, Mashhad, Tabriz and others, to the point of death is air pollution. Air pollution in Tehran, whose index has reached nearly

0:59 200, the stage called purple, at which normally, when air pollution reaches this level, they order the city evacuated. It is an old problem, many years old, that has gotten worse year after year. When we reach colder weather, because of the phenomenon of temperature inversion, the air gets cold and the pollution cannot rise past the heavier cold air above it, so it reaches the point of suffocation and gets worse and worse. The main source of air pollution in Tehran and the country's cities is gasoline cars and

1:56 the country's worn-out gasoline motorcycles, which account for more than 80 percent of the pollution. The remaining 20 percent is usually the fuel of the country's factories and power plants, and then diesel vehicles such as buses and trucks. But the most dangerous and most important of them is the presence of more than 23 million gasoline cars and more than 12 million, some even say up to 14 million, worn-out and old gasoline motorcycles. About 500,000 tractor-trailers, trucks, buses and so on, some even say up to one million, are the next factor. But the country's power plants, many of which these days, because of

2:56 the gas shortage, have also started burning heavy fuels like mazut, are another factor that has driven pollution up sharply. But this problem, which is said to cause more than 40 billion dollars in direct and indirect damage to the country every year, has a solution. Solutions that have been proposed for years. I myself, personally, several years ago thought that if, with the help of experts, we could at least propose solutions to the Tehran Municipality, acting as coordinator with the car manufacturers, as well as with the Ministry of Oil and others, this problem could be solved.

3:54 But as usual with the rest of the country's problems, in the country's incompetent, thieving and corrupt system, the proposals go nowhere, and in practice the situation has continued. Many experts argue that in 3 stages, with a program of at most 7 years, or up to 10 years, the problem can be solved and the air quality of the capital and the big and small cities of the country can be brought up to international standards. In the first stage, all existing vehicles must actually be compelled to come and install catalysts, or catalytic converters,

4:52 in their vehicles. With their installation, and the installation of measuring equipment, and strict mandatory emissions tests annually or even every 6 months, vehicles would also be forced, along with installing the catalysts, to actually tune their engines and address some other technical points in gasoline engines, both motorcycles and cars. With a 1- to 2-year program, the current situation can be improved and pollution reduced by at least up to 50 percent.

5:46 The second stage, which can start at the same time, is developing public transportation, replacing worn-out buses with new ones, or installing these same emission-prevention systems on buses, trucks and tractor-trailers. If public transportation is developed, with incentive policies, and on the other side making the use of private passenger cars and the like more expensive, perhaps another roughly 20 percent of the pollution can be cut, along with people's use of public transportation. And the third stage, which can also start from day one, is an incentive and subsidy program by the government for replacing

6:44 worn-out vehicles, as well as compelling the car manufacturers to produce quality products with new standards. With a program over 5 to 7 years, and with assistance, all existing vehicles can be replaced with high-standard vehicles or with electric vehicles, for which of course chargers, so-called fast chargers and so on, must also be installed, and thought must be given to the electricity supply, which of course will not increase that much. Then the problem can actually be, in a way, eradicated. Estimates show that all of this requires a budget of around 50 billion dollars over 7 or 10

7:43 years, which, considering the annual 40-billion-dollar loss inflicted on the country economically, and in terms of people's lives and health, on which no price can be put, is clearly entirely cost-effective and entirely economical, and it must be implemented. But unfortunately, any proposal of this kind or similar to it, when it goes to the executive system, because of corruption, where a group immediately appears wanting to take charge of it, and then incompetence and mismanagement, especially in the Tehran Municipality and other municipalities, as well as in the

8:39 car industry, the Ministry of Oil and so on, results in none of these plans being implemented. As for factories and power plants, in parallel, over 3 to 5 years, large industrial filters, which are mandatory all over the world, can be installed. The most polluting industries, like the cement industry or power plants and other industries, can in this way be equipped with clean systems, and this calamity can actually be stopped. But yesterday, Sunday afternoon, 2 Azar, Hezbollah's military commander Haytham Ali Tabatabai,

9:37 who was born to an Iranian father and a Lebanese mother, and who in practice can be said to have been Hezbollah's number one figure now, ahead of Naim Qassem, and the Islamic Republic's main operative in Hezbollah, was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Beirut, in the Dahiyeh district. This matter, which is extremely painful for the Islamic Republic, led to a reaction from Mr. Larijani in an Arabic tweet, as well as a statement from the IRGC, in both of which they threatened retaliation and even war with Israel. But why did Mr. Larijani do this, or why did the IRGC issue such a statement? Three reasons can be given. The first reason is that they took a hard blow, it hurt them very much, and they reacted in order

10:37 to boost the morale of Hezbollah, which these days is under severe political and military pressure, despite the injection of 1 billion dollars into Hezbollah over the past year for rebuilding. The second reason is actually to boost the morale of their own people at home, because they have lost faith in Khamenei, in the system, in whether these actions are of any use, and they have become disaffected, which we pointed out in previous programs. And the third reason is actually the disarray in the organization of the Quds Force and the IRGC in supporting these proxy forces, a problem that affects all

11:38 the proxy forces, from Iraq to Yemen, from Hezbollah to the Quds Force headquarters itself in Iran, especially after the fall of Syria. In any case, the fact that they are now threatening war is, in my view, mostly empty bluster, because IRGC officials and Khamenei personally are extremely afraid of a new war with Israel; in fact, in the 12-day war Israel taught them a lesson they won't forget. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has put forward a 28-point plan for Ukraine, cooked up by Mr. Witkoff and Putin's envoy. A plan that many believe, and American newspapers have even dubbed it the Putin plan, and they believe that if Putin himself

12:33 had wanted to write it, perhaps he would not have dared to write some of these things. In any case, it is a plan that has also troubled the Europeans, and they are probably preparing and proposing a counter, alternative 12-point plan in place of Trump's 28 points. Mr. Trump had set a deadline of this Thursday for Ukraine to accept it, or else he would step back. Of course, Mr. Marco Rubio implicitly extended this deadline and said that if it doesn't happen by Thursday, so be it. In any case, in the coming days the Ukraine issue and peace in Ukraine will become one of the most important issues of American foreign policy, in addition to which the Ukraine war also affects Iran's fate. Mr. Trump has also talked about presenting

13:32 a plan to place the Muslim Brotherhood on the list of terrorist organizations, along with US or international sanctions, something that is probably the handiwork of Mr. Mohammed bin Salman during his trip, and above all a gesture of favor toward Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But Qatar, an ally of America, and Turkey both actually have good relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and have pursued, and still pursue, Brotherhood-style political Islam, especially the Qataris, and this move is a poke in their eye. In hope of victory for Iran and Iranians.