Russia's plan for after Khamenei

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:02 Hello. It is Friday, the 25th of Mehr 1404, October 17, 2025. First, I apologize that because I am traveling, the program may be of lower quality than usual. Mr. Ali Larijani's trip to Moscow to meet Putin and deliver Khamenei's message to him is an important matter that deserves our attention. Last week Putin stated that the Israelis, meaning Mr. Netanyahu personally, had asked him in a phone call to tell Iran that Israel does not currently intend to attack Iran.

0:59 It seems Mr. Putin said this in Tajikistan. He said it publicly, so it is not a lie. On the Israeli side, this message could have two reasons. One is that they genuinely do not want to attack right now; some say they are waiting for their laser missile defense to be completed. The second is that it could be a deception plan, and they may once again use the element of surprise. Whichever of these two guesses is correct, it seems Mr. Khamenei has answered Mr. Netanyahu through Putin, with

1:53 the letter that Ali Larijani carried. As an aside, it is interesting that on his return Ali Larijani went straight to Mashhad, which clearly shows that Khamenei is staying in Mashhad, and that of the holes he has around the country and moves between, he is currently in Mashhad. It was said before that they may have prepared places for him somewhere within the Imam Reza shrine complex, where he lives. In effect, he has set up a human shield for himself. In the past, of course, whenever he went to Mashhad he went to Bagh-e Malek, but it is very unlikely he would be there, since it is a well-known place. In any case,

2:54 with this reply, whose content we do not know, Mr. Khamenei has raised another dimension. The other dimension of Iran-Russia relations is the attack Mr. Lavrov made on Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister, in which Lavrov stated that the snapback mechanism was, in short, a blunder that Zarif committed, and he claimed as if they had opposed it. Yesterday, in a speech, Mr. Zarif answered Mr. Lavrov and stated that during the negotiations Mr. Lavrov

3:52 had proposed that Iran's sanctions be renewed every six months, that it be done that way. In fact, what bothered him was that the snapback mechanism takes away their veto power. Zarif said: we strongly opposed this plan, and Mr. Kerry, the US Secretary of State, told me, "Your friend made this proposal," meaning Mr. Lavrov, who claimed friendship with Iran. Interestingly, Mr. Salehi, another former foreign minister, has taken the Russians' side and effectively attacked Zarif. This affair, in which one could say Mr. Lavrov has in a way taken revenge for what Zarif said in that

4:54 interview with Saeed Laylaz, where he said the Russians were putting a spoke in the wheel of the JCPOA and the normalization of relations, actually has a deeper dimension as well. Part of that dimension Mr. Zarif raised in this same talk, and I agree with his analysis. Mr. Zarif stated that the Russians' strategy regarding Iran is to always keep Iran in this state of hostility with the West, America, the European Union and so on, without the situation reaching war, and by any means to preserve Iran's current situation.

5:50 But we must go one step further on this matter. Russia is a seasoned, old colonial power that knows Iran's ins and outs very well. Besides its infiltration of the Ministry of Intelligence, the Office of the Supreme Leader, the IRGC, the military establishment, and Iran's nuclear and missile projects and so on, it also has agents within society. It is said that Russia has more than 1,000 trained professional spies in Iran. The standard for intelligence agencies is that for every

6:44 one spy, 13 people must work at headquarters to manage them. So one can estimate that a large department of 13,000 to 14,000 people in Russia works specifically on Iran. But what does this trap-setting and this effort mean? Russia, given its experience with the collapse of an ideological communist government, has always kept, and still keeps, an eye on Iran after the Islamic Republic and after Khamenei's death. Although Khamenei has long tried to secure Russian support for his son Mojtaba, so that after his death the Russians would back

7:44 Mojtaba coming to power. The Russians may also have made promises to Khamenei to deceive him, but what is more often discussed is that Russia has in mind for Iran the model that it carried out in Russia itself after the collapse of the Soviet Union. That is, after the fall of the communist government and the deaths of the old, worn-out leaders the Communist Party had, who all died within a year or two, and with Yeltsin coming to power, a period of chaos and turmoil arose. Eventually the disciples of Andropov, the veteran and experienced head of the KGB, such as Putin himself and others, who greatly

8:42 revered and venerated him, and still do, built networks with the money they had stolen and the financial resources they had, and gradually managed to take control of the situation. Then, by creating insecurity, with those famous apartment bombings in Moscow that killed 300 people and fanned fear, insecurity and chaos among the Russian people, Mr. Putin came to power. Then, with the networks and resources they had inside the government, they quickly seized power and effectively created Russia's current oligarchy, and since the beginning of

9:40 the 21st century until now, Mr. Putin and his gang have remained at the top of power. It is said that Russia has a similar plan for Iran, and is waiting for Khamenei's death, or perhaps, if the opportunity arises and its preparations are ready, it might even collude with these same Israelis to kill Khamenei, and then, with some chaos and insecurity and so on, effectively take control through the networks it has built inside the intelligence apparatus, the IRGC, the police and so forth. Russia's servile agents are also plentiful: Russophiles such as Hossein Shariatmadari, or

10:36 Ali Akbar Velayati, or this same Mr. Salehi and others, who can be the mouthpieces for the pro-Russians coming to power after Khamenei's death and for transforming the Islamic Republic into a Putin-style model. Interestingly, along this path Russia attacks, in various ways, openly and covertly, those whom it considers pro-Western, or who want to bring Iran out from under Russia's yoke and are more in favor of relations with Europe and America. It does so through Kayhan newspaper, the hardliners, the Paydari Front people, and sometimes directly, as when the likes of

11:29 Mr. Lavrov himself step into the arena and blow the whistle, effectively unleashing these people against, for example, elements such as the Rouhani government, the Executives of Construction Party, Hashemi's supporters and others in the government, who in any case wanted to bring Iran closer to the West as well. Interestingly, Mr. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who was a member of the Majlis for four terms, served on the National Security Commission and was at times its chairman, has also given an interview in which he said that when the Russians' Sukhoi-35 aircraft landed and were stationed at the Nojeh base in Hamedan, this required them to have control over all of Iran's radar and electronic warfare systems, so as to

12:31 provide cyber protection for the capabilities of these aircraft so that their secrets would not leak. He says that at the time he opposed, in the Majlis, putting all of Iran's defensive capabilities and all of its electronic capabilities at the Russians' disposal, but he was taken to court. And now Mr. Falahatpisheh has stated, and it is not unlikely that he is right, that in Israel's 12-day war with the Islamic Republic, the Russians had placed all of Iran's air defense and radar capabilities at Israel's disposal. In any case, the Russians, who have long experience in betraying

13:29 Iran and Iranians, have, thanks to Khamenei's servility and through his incompetence, thefts and the other things he has done, effectively sunk their bloody claws into many of the country's pillars and resources, and they are also plotting for Iran's future. The only way to counter this, it must be said again, is the presence of the people and the demonstration of the people's power. But tomorrow, Saturday, at the invitation of dozens of civil organizations and associations in America, demonstrations have been called in hundreds of locations in small and large cities across America

14:23 against Mr. Trump, under the title "No Kings," meaning no to monarchy, we don't want a king. This is because Mr. Trump and those around him have so far shown signs that he wants to make his power permanent; the White House even published his picture with "Long live the king" written under it. These demonstrations are in fact a defense of American democracy against someone, or those, who want to make power lifelong. In hope of the victory of Iran and