Massive US military buildup and the possibility of renewed war

What he says

An English translation of the talk, which is in Persian. It was made with AI from YouTube's automatic captions and may contain errors; the Persian transcript is authoritative. Click a timestamp to jump to that part of the video.

0:01 Hello. Wednesday, 9 Mehr 1404, October 1, 2025. The deployment by the United States of dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft, at least 10 tankers, to an air base in Qatar, along with dozens more aircraft and fighter jets to Britain, which is closer to the Middle East, has raised the serious question of whether a new war and confrontation lie ahead. The question is whether Israel, which has announced that it knows the location of Iran's 60-percent enriched uranium,

0:58 where it is, and which is, so to speak, watching and witnessing the reconstruction of the missile programs, the importing of missile fuel and materials for producing solid fuel and so on, and is likewise closely watching Iran's programs, intends to attack again, and whether America has brought this equipment to back it up. Or is it merely, so to speak, military diplomacy: America has brought in this volume of installations and forces to warn Iran not to put a foot wrong, or else it will face an Israeli attack and war with American support, or even an American attack?

1:59 On the other side, the Islamic Republic, as its internal news shows, is constantly rebuilding its missiles, producing solid fuel for ballistic missiles, developing new types of missiles and so on. Then, according to the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, top-ranking officials have also been required to designate up to five successors, so to speak, which in effect shows preparation for confrontation and war. Does all this smell of war or not? In any case, answering this question is difficult, but one thing can be said, and that is that the Israelis, both in their recent meeting in America, where the prime minister and his accompanying delegation met with the president and

3:02 American expert delegations, and before that, told the Americans that they are closely following Iran's nuclear project, and that the nuclear project, Iran's missiles, and its proxy groups are three threats that endanger Israel's existence. Because Iranian officials have said again and again that they seek to wipe Israel off the map. Therefore, as a measure accepted under international law, Israel says it has the right to carry out preemptive strikes, and it has received a green light from the Americans for these strikes, and in the event of such strikes, as in previous cases, America will provide every kind of support to

4:02 Israel. Interestingly, at the same time, Mr. Trump has also issued an order in which he said that an attack on Qatar, the small country where America's largest air base in the region is located, will be considered an attack on America. This warning could be aimed both at Israel, which attacked Qatari territory to kill Hamas leaders, and at the Islamic Republic, which actually fired missiles at the American air base. When we put all of this together, one can really understand why people these days

4:58 have as their main and serious question whether there will be war or not, and if there is war, whether this time Israel will also target Khamenei, as well as the regime's leaders, the machinery of repression and so on. It is said that in the 12-day war it was America that held Israel back from killing Khamenei, and it is also said that this time America has given Israel a green light: if it conducts a military operation and is able to kill Khamenei as well, America will no longer hold it back. Meanwhile, Ms. Fatemeh Mohajerani, the government spokesperson, has stated that people should know that we were ready to talk and negotiate; it was the Americans who did not come. She said that we had arranged to talk with the European troika,

5:58 Mr. Witkoff and the Agency, but they did not come. In fact, two accounts have been given from that side of the table. One is that the Europeans said Iran had stated that, merely in exchange for saying where the 408 kilograms of 60-percent uranium is, they must postpone the snapback mechanism or take it off the table altogether, and Europe said we do not accept preconditions. But another point that has been raised is that Mr. Pezeshkian had obtained a green light from Mr. Khamenei to conduct these negotiations directly with America, and for that reason Mr.

6:58 Araghchi came a few days early and arrangements and commitments had been made. It has even been said that Trump might have come and entered a meeting, for example unannounced, drawing the reporters' attention there, and Mr. Pezeshkian would join, so that direct negotiations at the presidential level, or at least the pleasantries, would take place. But Mr. Khamenei, who had previously given his consent, while Mr. Pezeshkian was in the air on his way to New York, recorded that video from his hole and closed the door to negotiations with America, and also blocked the matter of negotiations and so on,

7:52 and in practice the deadlock that has arisen was created by Khamenei personally. Of course, the question remains: if this is true, then if Mr. Pezeshkian had even an ounce of self-respect, he should have carried out these commitments, held the negotiations, and honored the commitments that had been made, out of respect for his position as head of government, as president, and for the commitments of the diplomatic apparatus. He should have defied him, returned to Tehran, and told Mr. Khamenei, "I did it, and if you want to remove me, go ahead and remove me."

8:42 But, well, we saw the opposite: nothing of the sort happened. Far from it, upon returning to Tehran Mr. Pezeshkian has gone to the other extreme and sometimes chants slogans even more hardline than Khamenei. Meanwhile, despite the commitment China has apparently made, assuring that it will continue buying 1.4 to 1.5 million barrels of smuggled oil per day, and despite officials in various ways telling the people that nothing will happen, the reality is that the return of the snapback mechanism is not only about

9:36 oil sanctions and being deprived of revenue from exports of oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals. The European Union has reinstated all its sanctions, Britain announced today, America has imposed new sanctions, and those six UN Security Council resolutions create pressure on maritime shipping, aircraft, travel, bank accounts, Iran's banking system, and so on and so forth. The result of all this will make Iran's economic situation more chaotic and inflation more severe. This is something the market also understands, and today the dollar's exchange rate on the open currency market rose to over 100, close to 116,000 tomans per dollar.

10:35 And even the statement by Russia's representative at the UN, who has also become the rotating president of the Security Council for one month, since the Security Council presidency rotates monthly in alphabetical order among the 15 members and it is now Russia's turn, who said that, in short, we do not recognize these UN sanctions and will not implement them, the reimposition of sanctions, even these words had no effect, because Russia itself is basically a shipwrecked vessel under the pressure of international sanctions. Meanwhile, the chairman of the board and the spokesperson of the country's water industry, in separate remarks, announced the beginning of

11:34 salt storms due to the drying up of Lake Urmia, and Urmia's representative in the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis) has also stated that a quiet migration has begun from the villages of the Lake Urmia basin. The salt storm that is said to have begun, with the complete drying up of Lake Urmia, will have major chain-reaction effects on the livability of the region. The lake, which covers between 5,000 and 6,000 square kilometers, with an average depth of 6 meters and 15 meters at its deepest point, and which held more than 30 billion cubic meters of water, has dried up, and a great catastrophe has

12:33 occurred that will bring a great chain of disasters. This is an issue that has been raised for years: that the lake must be given its water share, that the cropping pattern in the region must be changed, that water-saving methods must be adopted in agriculture, even at the cost of shutting down farming and changing crops, so that the necessary water could reach the lake. This has not been done to date, and this catastrophe has finally taken shape. In hope of victory for Iran and Iranians.